Kalshi Traders Predict Anthropic IPO Announcement Likely
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi have sharply increased their estimates that Anthropic, the AI company, will announce an initial public offering (IPO) this year. The probability of an IPO announcement before November jumped from 4.7% on September 28 to 16% by Wednesday afternoon. Kalshi traders see a greater than 60% chance of an announcement before December and nearly 80% before January. This comes amid reports that Anthropic will warn investors in its IPO prospectus that its AI models pose a 'catastrophic or existential risk to humanity.' Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June and is seeking a $2 trillion valuation. The company plans to spend over $500 billion on cloud computing and infrastructure in the coming year. Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei has also urged AI companies to slow down the pace of AI advancement, a stance supported by OpenAI's Sam Altman and SpaceX's Elon Musk.
- •Kalshi traders see a 16% chance of Anthropic announcing an IPO before November, up from 4.7% on Sept. 28.
- •Kalshi traders estimate a greater than 60% chance of an IPO announcement before December and nearly 80% before January.
- •Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June and is seeking a $2 trillion valuation.
