Observed Signal · Sep 16, 2026 · M&A - Announced · Source: Digiday · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Negative
M&A Market: Ad Tech's Public Market Woes: Investment Banker Explains Small-Cap Problem
At ExchangeWire's ATS London conference, investment banker Josh Wepman of Houlihan Lokey argued that the struggles of publicly-traded ad tech companies stem from their small market capitalizations, not performance. Most companies are too small to attract significant investment from index funds and mutual funds, with 'it's hard to be a $7 billion company' serving as a key quote. Deal activity has picked up to around $14 billion so far in 2026, but transactions are fewer and larger. Nick Macshane of Progress Partners noted extreme volatility in ad tech stocks, with some companies swinging 60% up or down, suggesting many should not be public. The article highlights take-private trends, mentioning Criteo's rumored buyout, and companies like DoubleVerify, LiveRamp, and Integral Ad Science moving off public markets. It also notes enterprise interest from Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Workday, Databricks, Snowflake, and OpenAI.
High importance: The article addresses systemic issues in public ad tech markets, including take-private trends and major stock declines for key players like The Trade Desk, which are directly relevant to the AdTech industry's structure and investment landscape.
Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Josh Wepman, MD at Houlihan Lokey, says public ad tech companies are too small for index/mutual funds to invest meaningfully.
- Public ad tech stocks have underperformed broader tech indices, with declining multiples through 2025-2026.
- Deal activity reached approximately $14 billion so far in 2026, spread across fewer, larger deals.
- Nick Macshane of Progress Partners cites extreme stock volatility, with some ad tech companies down or up 60%.
- The Trade Desk's stock has fallen over 80% since mid-2025 and is being dropped from the S&P 500.
- Criteo is rumored to be exploring a take-private deal; DoubleVerify, LiveRamp, and Integral Ad Science have already gone private.
- Enterprise software companies like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Workday, Databricks, Snowflake, and OpenAI are circling ad tech assets.
Connected Companies & Entities
14 Entities mappedIntegral Ad Science
Adtech platform for media quality measurement and verification.
“Integral Ad Science ... have all moved off public markets this year through take-private deals....”
Progress Partners
Professional Services (Legal/Consulting)Boutique tech-focused investment bank and venture advisory firm.
“Nick Macshane, founder and senior managing director at investment bank Progress Partners, shared a slide showing volatility....”
ServiceNow
Enterprise workflow automation software for IT, operations, and service teams.
“Enterprise names like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday are circling too....”
LiveRamp
Identity and data collaboration software for advertising and measurement.
“LiveRamp ... have all moved off public markets this year through take-private deals....”
Workday
Cloud ERP and HCM software for large enterprises.
“Enterprise names like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday are circling too....”
Criteo
Commerce media platform for retail advertising and open internet activation.
“Criteo, which is rumored to be exploring a take-private deal....”
DoubleVerify
Adtech platform for media quality, measurement and optimisation.
“DoubleVerify ... have all moved off public markets this year through take-private deals....”
Houlihan Lokey
Professional Services (Legal/Consulting)Independent investment bank for M&A, restructuring and valuation advisory.
“Josh Wepman, managing director of technology investment banking at Houlihan Lokey, said it isn't a performance problem....”
Adobe
Creative, document and experience software for professionals and enterprises.
“Enterprise names like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday are circling too....”
Snowflake
Managed enterprise data cloud for analytics, sharing, AI, and clean rooms.
“alongside newer entrants like Databricks, Snowflake and OpenAI that haven't been fully factored in yet....”
OpenAI
Foundation model company selling AI software, APIs and subscriptions.
“alongside newer entrants like Databricks, Snowflake and OpenAI that haven't been fully factored in yet....”
The Trade Desk
Independent DSP for omnichannel programmatic advertising on the open internet.
“The Trade Desk's management team can attest to the difficulty of turning around a small-cap position....”
Salesforce
Enterprise SaaS platform for CRM, marketing, data, analytics, and workflows.
“Enterprise names like Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday are circling too....”
Databricks
Enterprise lakehouse platform for data, analytics and AI.
“alongside newer entrants like Databricks, Snowflake and OpenAI that haven't been fully factored in yet....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
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