AI Bubble Risks Worst S&P 500 Crash Since 2008, Strategist Says
Analyst Joachim Klement of Panmure Liberum warns that the current AI investment bubble could burst in 2027 or 2028, potentially leading to a stock market crash comparable to the dot-com era. He argues that massive investments in frontier models and hyperscale data centers are misaligned with actual demand, as small language models and open-weight models running locally on devices gain prominence. Klement notes that annual tech sector investments are 70% above the inflation-adjusted peak of the dot-com bubble. He outlines scenarios where a mild correction could see the S&P 500 fall 15%, a deeper recession could cause a 20% drop in US markets and over 30% in Europe, and a full crash could lead to declines exceeding 50%. To hedge, he recommends defensive sectors. The report also cites OpenAI's recent revenue miss of $20 billion, though attributed to accounting differences versus competitors like Anthropic.
- •Analyst Joachim Klement of Panmure Liberum predicts the AI investment bubble will burst in 2027 or 2028.
- •Annual tech sector investments are 70% above the inflation-adjusted peak of the dot-com bubble.
- •A mild correction with a 4.5% decline in tech investment could lead to a 15% drop in the S&P 500.
