Observed Signal · Oct 25, 2026 · Research/Analysis · Source: techcrunch · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Negative
AI delivers 'zero financial payoff' to most companies, Apollo says
Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok contends that AI has yet to yield financial gains for non-tech firms, citing flat profit margins and revenue per worker in the S&P 493, while the Magnificent Seven enjoy higher revenue per employee (~$780,000) and margins (~30%). He attributes this to concentrated AI spending, circular investment, and rising token costs, leading to cost-saving tactics like 'modelmaxxing.' Slok argues AI cannot replace human judgment, referencing a Bitkom survey on surprising AI fees. Meanwhile, Anthropic launched 'Smart Reports' for its enterprise Claude platform, offering managers aggregated insights on team usage at list price. The feature, free but off by default, allows up to ten reports monthly and is restricted to authorized managers, not for performance evaluation. Amid rising AI cost concerns, this move targets enterprise clients, who constitute about 80% of Anthropic's revenue, ahead of a possible IPO.
Analysis from a major financial firm questions AI's financial returns, which could temper investment and adoption expectations in the AdTech/MarTech space.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Slok found no AI payoff for non-tech firms in the S&P 493, with flat margins and revenue per worker, contrasting the Magnificent Seven's higher productivity and margins.
- Challenges for non-tech AI adoption include concentrated spending (top 1% account for ~80% of OpenAI/Anthropic usage) and rising token costs, prompting 'modelmaxxing'.
- A Federal Reserve study projects AI-driven productivity growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
- Anthropic's Smart Reports feature for enterprise Claude provides managers with aggregated usage insights and costs, free but disabled by default, with up to ten reports monthly.
- AWS study shows only 15% of German companies fully leverage AI; Bitkom survey reveals a third were surprised by AI costs.
Connected Companies & Entities
13 Entities mapped“The top 10 percent of firms account for 95.6 percent of spending on OpenAI and Anthropic”
“Apollo Global Management is the private equity giant that used to own TechCrunch and employs chief economist Torsten Slok.”
“...influential tech companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia are among the 'Magnificent Seven'.”
“...influential tech companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia are among the 'Magnificent Seven'.”
“...influential tech companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia are among the 'Magnificent Seven'.”
“The margins at Apple, Meta, and others rose to about 30 percent.”
“In Germany, many were surprised by the high AI fees – around one-third of companies surveyed in a Bitkom survey said this.”
“The margins at Apple, Meta, and others rose to about 30 percent.”
“He relies on data from the U.S. fintech Ramp, which analyzes corporate spending at tens of thousands of businesses.”
“Ming Lu, a senior advisory partner at the investment firm KKR, recently struck a similarly skeptical note in an essay for Fortune.”
“LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman has even called it the only reason the United States is not in a recession.”
“The top 10 percent of firms account for 95.6 percent of spending on OpenAI and Anthropic”
“An AWS study reveals AI adoption levels in German companies.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
AI Adoption Rarely Shows on Balance Sheets
This analysis argues that while many companies claim to use AI, fewer than 40% report measurable profit or cost savings tied to those efforts. Citing the Stanford AI Index (2026) and a Gartner projection, the piece highlights a gap between technical adoption (models, agents, inferences) and business outcomes (reduced churn, cost savings). It warns that without clear, dollar-based success metrics and cross-functional alignment between engineering, product, and finance, AI projects risk ballooning costs, model drift, and being shelved despite deployment.
AI 'Slop' Floods Content with Little Productivity Gain
Gary Marcus argues that generative AI has produced a large volume of low-quality output across apps, books, music, scientific papers and web content—what he calls "slop"—without delivering material productivity or GDP gains. He cites graphs from the Financial Times and The Washington Post and references studies from MIT, McKinsey and Bain suggesting limited ROI for many companies. Marcus highlights rising token costs and cash losses at major AI providers (Open AI/OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, CoreWeave), noting an analysis that suggests providers may be spending far more than they charge. He also cites the Leiden Declaration — an open letter from mathematicians reported by the New York Times — warning that AI can produce plausible but unreliable proofs. Marcus allows that coding may be an exception, but questions long-term durability given the high operating costs of foundation-model providers.
Goldman: AI productivity gains not here yet
Goldman Sachs strategists say widespread enterprise-level productivity gains from AI have not yet materialized because the market is still focused on infrastructure spending rather than application-level automation. Goldman developed a methodology combining the share of a company's wage bill exposed to AI automation with labor costs as a percentage of sales to identify Russell 1000 companies most likely to benefit when productivity gains arrive. Goldman's list includes CoStar Group, Dollar Tree and eBay. Sectors highlighted as having high labor intensity and AI sensitivity include software, professional services, finance and biotech. The article cites isolated examples of early productivity surprises (e.g., Doximity) and references prior productivity forecasts from Goldman Sachs economists, McKinsey and MIT researchers.
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