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Lead DevelopmentFACT · 4/5•29 Sept '26•Via a16z

AI Assistants Disrupt Commerce: Who Keeps the Economics?

The article analyzes the economic implications of AI shopping assistants (like Muse, ChatGPT, Grok, Instinct) on existing commerce marketplaces. It argues that while incumbents like Amazon, DoorDash, and Instacart have built valuable fulfillment and advertising businesses, AI assistants that control the discovery and decision-making process could shift profits away. The key is whether assistants bring incremental demand or merely intercept existing orders. Amazon's ban on Muse and Instacart's integration illustrate different strategic responses. Platforms like Shopify, Toast, and Square, which lack large advertising businesses, may benefit by opening channels. The piece highlights that advertising revenue is a major profit driver for these giants—Amazon's $69B ad revenue versus $34B operating income ex-AWS—and even a partial redistribution could fund new ecosystems. It also discusses the potential for increased buying volume and the importance of negotiating power and physical infrastructure.

•Amazon generated $69 billion in advertising revenue in 2025, compared to $34 billion in operating income ex-AWS.
•Alphabet and Meta combined for nearly $500 billion in advertising revenue in 2025.
•Amazon has banned 'Muse' from its platform, while Instacart is integrating with Muse.

Entities:Amazon Shopify Toast DoorDash Instacart Alphabet Meta Uber Expedia Group Airbnb Block

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