Observed Signal · Jan 28, 2026 · Market Forecast · Source: State of Streaming · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Walmart, Amazon to Control Nearly Half of TV OS Market
A new Omdia forecast, reported by State of Streaming, projects retailers will control nearly half of the North American TV operating system market by 2029 as retailers prioritize e-commerce and advertising over hardware margins. Walmart’s acquisition of Vizio is accelerating its CastOS footprint—projected to reach almost 15 million units—while Amazon’s Fire TV is forecast at nearly 9 million units. Together they could command roughly 24 million units in an estimated 50 million-unit TV OS market. CES 2026 showcased the trend toward commerce-first TVs: Hisense is rebranding VIDAA to “V Home OS” with Microsoft Copilot AI integration, and Google is embedding Gemini AI into Google TV to enable interactive, shoppable video experiences and conversational shopping paths.
A major market-structure forecast showing retailers (Walmart, Amazon) gaining large share of TV OS installs signals a shift toward commerce-driven ad inventory and retail media on CTV — material for advertisers, platforms, and publishers planning monetization and distribution strategies.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Omdia forecast projects retailers' TV OS market share to rise from 27% in 2025 to nearly 50% by 2029.
- Walmart’s acquisition of Vizio is driving CastOS to a projected nearly 15 million units by 2029.
- Amazon’s Fire TV is forecast to reach nearly 9 million units by 2029.
- Walmart and Amazon combined are projected to command about 24 million units in a roughly 50 million-unit North American TV OS market.
- Industry moves at CES 2026 include Hisense rebranding VIDAA to "V Home OS" with Microsoft Copilot AI; Google is embedding Gemini AI into Google TV for interactive shoppable videos.
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Walmart CastOS to Dominate North America CTV OS, Omdia
Walmart’s $2.3 billion acquisition of TV maker VIZIO gives Walmart ownership of CastOS, VIZIO’s smart TV operating system, expanding its access to TV viewership data and the ability to layer retail data into TV buys. New Omdia data projects CastOS to reshape the North American smart TV OS market, forecasting CastOS to command 30% of shipments by 2029, up from 13% today, ahead of Roku (31%), Samsung’s Tizen (22%), and FireTV (14%). The shift follows Walmart’s consolidation of its Onn brand from Roku’s OS to CastOS, with the transition expected to accelerate over the next year. Walmart’s ACR data from CastOS TVs enables measurement and attribution, access to inventory on the home screen and VIZIO’s free ad-supported channels, and the rollout of new shoppable ad formats. The move strengthens Walmart’s negotiating leverage with other TV brands and could spur retailer-led consolidation in North America, while Android remains the global lead and Europe may see similar trends.
Omdia: Google, Amazon, Netflix to Capture Half of CTV
Omdia research forecasts global connected TV (CTV) advertising revenue will grow from $44 billion in 2025 to $81 billion by 2030. The analyst house projects Google will hold about 26% of CTV ad revenue by 2030, Amazon 13% and Netflix 9%, meaning those three companies will together capture roughly 50% of the global CTV ad market. Omdia highlights trends accelerating the shift — expansion of ad-supported streaming, retail-media and TV-ad convergence, growth in programmatic/targeted TV advertising, and the growing strategic importance of TV operating systems and smart TV ecosystems. The report also notes VIDAA is becoming Europe’s third-largest TV operating system behind Android TV and Tizen. Omdia analysts warn broadcasters and CTV companies risk losing ad revenue and platform control to large tech and retail platforms.
Top Analysts Bullish on CoreWeave, Palo Alto Networks, Amazon
Wall Street analysts are optimistic about CoreWeave, Palo Alto Networks, and Amazon. JPMorgan upgraded CoreWeave to Buy with a $125 price target, citing robust AI-driven cloud demand and a 25% price hike. BTIG raised Palo Alto Networks' price target to $425, expecting over 17% revenue growth and 26% NGS ARR growth in fiscal 2027. Rosenblatt raised Amazon's price target to $360, dismissing fears that agentic commerce will hurt its retail media business, and expects AWS to grow over 45%.
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