Observed Signal · Dec 17, 2025 · Research Report · Source: State of Streaming · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Parks Associates: Streaming Drives U.S. Video Market
A Parks Associates forecast projects the U.S. video market will reach $190.7 billion by 2030, with that modest expansion driven primarily by streaming while traditional pay-TV continues to shrink. Total subscriptions are expected to rise to about 765 million, but average household monthly spending on video services will increase to nearly $123 by 2028 (from just over $101 in 2020). Parks Associates Research Director Michael Goodman says market maturity means growth depends on extracting more value from existing customers, with consumer behavior shifting toward service stacking and ad-supported tiers. Fewer than 35% of U.S. households are forecast to retain a traditional pay-TV package by 2027, prompting media companies to pursue churn-reduction tactics such as app rebundling and product restructuring.
The Parks Associates forecast quantifies structural market shifts—streaming-driven revenue growth, rising consumer spend, and the decline of pay-TV—which affect ad inventory, pricing, churn strategies and content bundling decisions relevant to advertisers, publishers and streaming platforms.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Parks Associates forecasts U.S. video market revenue will reach $190.7 billion by 2030.
- Total video subscriptions in the U.S. are projected to climb to 765 million.
- Average household monthly spending on video services is projected to peak near $123 in 2028, up from just over $101 in 2020.
- Fewer than 35% of U.S. households are expected to have a traditional pay-TV package by 2027.
- Parks Associates states growth is now driven by extracting more value from existing streaming customers, including moves to ad-supported tiers and service bundling (the "great rebundling").
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S&P: Cable TV Faces Ninth Year of Decline
A new S&P Global Market Intelligence report finds U.S. pay-TV subscriptions have declined for a ninth consecutive year as consumers shift to streaming and virtual bundles. Pay-TV penetration fell from over 80% in 2011 to about 34% today. In 2024, basic cable networks lost an average of roughly 7% of subscribers; S&P projects the average cable network will shrink by more than 5% annually through 2029. The analysis shows a widening audience gap—some channels still exceed 60 million subscribers while many have fewer than 10 million—and notes strategic responses such as cable channels listing on streaming bundle services. S&P also highlights that bundling TV, internet and wireless correlates with higher customer satisfaction for providers that pursue that strategy.
Five-Year Cord-Cutting Drives Streaming Dominance
This industry retrospective reviews the U.S. transition from traditional pay TV to streaming over the five years leading to 2025. It quantifies subscriber and revenue declines for pay TV, compares household costs between cable and streaming, and describes technological and behavioral drivers—broadband penetration, smart devices, AI-driven recommendations, and pandemic-accelerated adoption. By 2025 streaming accounts for a majority of TV viewership, telcos are bundling internet with streaming services, and consumer preferences favor flexible, ad-supported or ad-free choices. The piece frames the next phase as competition over making content effortless and personalized rather than simply owning more titles.
Ad-Supported Subscriptions Fuel Streaming Services' Subscriber Surge
Recent analysis cited by German trade site Adzine reports that growth in streaming subscribers is now being driven largely by lower-cost, ad-supported subscription tiers. Investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates that for Netflix and Disney+ in the U.S., net subscriber growth in 2025 came almost entirely from ad-supported plans, while ad-free subscriber counts declined. Average streaming subscription prices in the U.S. rose about 12% in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of double-digit increases among the ten largest services, according to Convergence Research Group. Morgan Stanley and other observers note that although ad inventory expansion has sometimes outpaced demand, ad-supported tiers generate higher per-user revenue (subscription + ad) and the market is expected to rebalance as ad-based subscriptions become more common.
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