Observed Signal · Nov 30, 2025 · Research Report · Source: State of Streaming · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Negative
Study: IP-Based Ad Targeting Is Highly Inaccurate
A Truthset study, commissioned by CIMM and Go Addressable, finds IP-based ad targeting is highly unreliable for household and audience advertising. The report reports that IP-to-postal address matches occur only 13% of the time and IP-to-email matches 16% of the time, estimating that only $0.03 of every dollar spent reaches the intended audience. Truthset warns that frequently reassigned IP addresses and divergent data from providers undermine programmatic targeting, leaving open-web and free ad-supported streaming services at a disadvantage compared with deterministic, login-driven walled gardens like Google, Meta and Amazon. The study calls for a move toward deterministic identifiers and improved identity infrastructure for addressable TV and cross-platform measurement.
The study challenges the reliability of IP-based targeting — a widely used signal across programmatic and CTV ecosystems — with concrete accuracy metrics that could materially affect measurement, media buying, and the value gap between open web inventory and walled gardens.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Truthset published a study, commissioned by CIMM and Go Addressable, on IP-based ad targeting accuracy.
- The report found IP addresses match a consumer's postal address 13% of the time and an email address 16% of the time.
- The study estimated only three cents of every dollar spent on IP-targeted ads reaches the intended audience.
- Truthset cited IP reassignment by ISPs and disagreement among data providers as core causes of inaccuracy.
- The report highlights that walled gardens (Google, Meta, Amazon) are less affected because they rely on deterministic user logins.
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IP-Based CTV Targeting Fails 75% of Time
New research from identity resolution vendor Adstra and indie media agency InterMedia Advertising finds that IP-based connected TV (CTV) targeting is frequently inaccurate. The study reports that only 23% of residential IP addresses reached their intended geographic target and that device-level CTV identifiers were more stable over time (71%) than IP addresses (57%). The authors argue that opaque IP-to-household mapping methods waste media spend and propose a new reliability framework, ID Connection Strength (ICS), which scores identifiers 1–6 across five criteria. ICS has been in testing since January with select brands and agencies and is expected to be more widely available in the third quarter of 2026.
IP Address Match Rates: Alarmingly Low Accuracy Revealed
New findings from Truthset, commissioned by the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement (CIMM) and Go Addressable, reveal limited accuracy in linking online identifiers to real households. On average, IP-to-email matches are about 16% accurate, and IP-to-postal matches about 13% accurate. The study analyzed data from six major data vendors, including about 1 billion email addresses, 250 million IP addresses, and 164 million postal addresses. Verification used records from two internet service providers and one large multichannel video programming distributor over a 90-day window from December 2024 to February 2025, with Bayesian methods and machine learning to assess match correctness. The results show substantial vendor divergence (the most accurate provider up to 4.5x better than the least accurate), little overlap between vendors (over 90% of linkages unique to one provider), and underrepresentation of IPv6. The findings underscore the need for standards and industry collaboration rather than chasing maximum match rates.
APIs Shine as IP Targeting Fails to Deliver
APIs have long been the backbone of ad tech, but a new study undercuts the reliability of IP-based targeting, arguing that IP addresses remain a weak anchor for identity. The Big Story spotlights API-based self-serve platforms from Roku and Comcast and The Trade Desk’s PDP API, a deal-enforcing tool designed to improve automated provisioning and enforce commitments. A study commissioned by CIMM and Go Addressable and conducted by Truthset finds IP-to-email linkages accurate only 16% of the time and IP-to-postal matches only 13%, with substantial accuracy gaps across providers. The piece argues that standardization is overdue as providers chase quantity over quality, creating messy data and inconsistent outcomes. Still, APIs are essential for programmatic workflows, enabling different platforms to talk to one another. The PDP API is framed as a step toward more enforceable, scalable deal-making in a largely human-driven process.
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