Observed Signal · Apr 1, 2026 · Industry Analysis · Source: https://martech.org/feed/ · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Retail Media Enters Maturity as Easy Growth Fades
After five years of rapid expansion, retail media is shifting from early-stage growth to maturity. IAB forecasts 12.1% growth in 2026 while Forrester projects global retail media investment could surpass $300 billion by the end of the decade. Growth to date has been concentrated among a few scaled players and fueled largely by trade and shopper funds (estimated 30–60% of spend), which are now diminishing. The next phase requires attracting incremental media budgets, improving measurement and accountability (particularly incrementality and in-store attribution), and integrating retail media into broader business functions — merchandising, loyalty, ecommerce and operations. The industry faces operational and measurement challenges and will discuss these topics at the IAB Connected Commerce Summit on April 14 in New York City.
Retail media's transition to maturity changes where future ad dollars will come from and raises measurement, integration and operational challenges that affect advertisers, retailers, RMN technology vendors and agencies.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- IAB's ad spend study projects retail media will grow by 12.1% in 2026.
- Forrester projects global retail media investments may exceed $300 billion by the end of the decade.
- Industry estimates indicate 30%–60% of retail media investment has come from trade and shopper funds.
- Growth to date is concentrated among a few scaled players; future growth depends on attracting incremental media budgets.
- Measurement challenges persist, including proving incrementality, comparing performance across RMNs, and measuring in‑store media.
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