Observed Signal · Dec 9, 2025 · Market Forecast · Source: State of Streaming · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Commerce Media Overtakes TV in 2025 Ad Spend Forecast
WPP Media’s new forecast projects global ad spend will rise 8.8% in 2025, driven largely by AI-related demand, and predicts commerce media will surpass television for the first time. WPP estimates commerce media ad spend at $178 billion in 2025 versus $171 billion for TV, and says digital now represents 84% of the global ad market. The report also expects search ad revenue to grow more than 10% to nearly $245 billion in 2025, while analyst firm Madison & Wall warns the market is consolidating around automated, opaque products (citing Meta Advantage+ and Google Performance Max). WPP plans to publish a framework at CES to score companies on automation and data capabilities. Growth is forecast to moderate to about 7% in 2026 amid tariff effects and potential new social media regulation.
Commerce media overtaking TV and an upgraded AI-driven ad-spend forecast indicate a structural shift in budget allocation, measurement and platform strategy that affects advertisers, publishers and adtech vendors.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- WPP Media projects global ad spend will increase 8.8% in 2025.
- Commerce media ad spend is forecast at $178 billion in 2025, exceeding television's $171 billion.
- WPP reports digital now commands 84% of the global ad market.
- WPP expects search ad revenue to grow more than 10% to nearly $245 billion in 2025.
- WPP will release a framework at CES to score companies on automation and data capabilities; Madison & Wall flags consolidation around automated 'black box' products such as Meta Advantage+ and Google Performance Max.
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WPP Forecasts 8.9% Ad Revenue Growth; AI Cited
WPP Media’s midyear forecast, presented June 2026, raises its 2026 global advertising revenue growth projection to 8.9% (excluding US political ad spend), up from 7.1 in December. WPP attributes much of the uplift to strong US performance and the accelerating overlap between AI and ad tech. North America is projected to grow 11.6% in 2026 (helped by the World Cup and estimated $12.4B in US political ads), while Latin America is forecast at 13% driven by retail media and World Cup interest. WPP highlights the rise of a new ad channel — “generative search” — and combines it with traditional search into an “intelligence” category that it expects to represent 21.8% of ad revenue in 2026. Generative search alone is forecast at 0.4% ($5.1B) in 2026 and is expected to be the fastest channel to reach $100B by 2030.
Global ad market grows 11.9% in 2026; print, TV weak
According to Warc Media's forecast, the global advertising market is set to grow by 11.9% in 2026 to $1.34 trillion, following 10% growth in 2024 and 2025. Key growth drivers include investments in AI and major events like the Olympics and the FIFA World Cup. Social media will see the strongest growth at 21.3% to $394.6 billion, followed by VOD, retail media, search, and DOOH. Traditional media declines: TV down 1.8%, print down 0.9%, and radio down 3.0%. Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta will capture a combined 59.7% of global ad spend outside China. The growth is expected to normalize to 8.4% in 2027 and 7.9% in 2028. AI is reshaping targeting, creative, and campaign optimization, and creating new ad environments like generative search.
AI Investment Spurs Global Ad Growth in 2025
WPP Media’s This Year Next Year forecast indicates the global ad market is set for positive momentum into 2026, with 2025 growth upgraded to 8.8% and 2026 projected at 7.1% (excluding US political advertising). The acceleration is attributed to several factors, notably an AI investment boom that has spurred economic activity; Harvard economist Jason Furman is cited as noting that without AI investment US real GDP growth would have been only 0.1% in the first half of 2025. Tariffs diminished impact has been offset by imports, margins, and currency effects. The report highlights a TV ad landscape where linear TV remains in decline while streaming TV advertising grows strongly (about 15% annually), and TV’s share of total ad spend is expected to fall from 15.8% to 13.9% by next year. The piece also touches on longer-term labour-market implications and productivity uncertainties tied to AI-driven growth.
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