Observed Signal · Dec 5, 2025 · Forecast · Source: VideoWeek · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
AI Investment Spurs Global Ad Growth in 2025
WPP Media’s This Year Next Year forecast indicates the global ad market is set for positive momentum into 2026, with 2025 growth upgraded to 8.8% and 2026 projected at 7.1% (excluding US political advertising). The acceleration is attributed to several factors, notably an AI investment boom that has spurred economic activity; Harvard economist Jason Furman is cited as noting that without AI investment US real GDP growth would have been only 0.1% in the first half of 2025. Tariffs diminished impact has been offset by imports, margins, and currency effects. The report highlights a TV ad landscape where linear TV remains in decline while streaming TV advertising grows strongly (about 15% annually), and TV’s share of total ad spend is expected to fall from 15.8% to 13.9% by next year. The piece also touches on longer-term labour-market implications and productivity uncertainties tied to AI-driven growth.
Industry-wide forecast highlighting AI-driven growth and shifting TV dynamics.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- 2026 global ad market growth forecast: 7.1% (excluding US political advertising).
- 2025 ad market growth upgraded to 8.8% from 7.7%.
- AI investment boom credited as a driver; Jason Furman says US real GDP growth would have been 0.1% in H1 2025 without AI investment.
- Streaming TV advertising growth: 15.2% in 2025 and 15.1% in 2026.
- TV ad share of global ad market falls from 15.8% to 13.9% next year.
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WPP Forecasts 8.9% Ad Revenue Growth; AI Cited
WPP Media’s midyear forecast, presented June 2026, raises its 2026 global advertising revenue growth projection to 8.9% (excluding US political ad spend), up from 7.1 in December. WPP attributes much of the uplift to strong US performance and the accelerating overlap between AI and ad tech. North America is projected to grow 11.6% in 2026 (helped by the World Cup and estimated $12.4B in US political ads), while Latin America is forecast at 13% driven by retail media and World Cup interest. WPP highlights the rise of a new ad channel — “generative search” — and combines it with traditional search into an “intelligence” category that it expects to represent 21.8% of ad revenue in 2026. Generative search alone is forecast at 0.4% ($5.1B) in 2026 and is expected to be the fastest channel to reach $100B by 2030.
AI Buying Platforms to Handle 27% of US Ad Spend by 2030
A new forecast from Madison & Wall indicates that AI-driven ad buying platforms will manage 27% of U.S. ad spend by 2030. The report highlights that global ad revenue reached $1 trillion in 2024 and is projected to hit $1.3 trillion by the end of 2026, an 11% year-over-year increase. AI companies are both creating tools that enhance ad buying efficiency and becoming significant ad buyers themselves, fueling a circular growth pattern. However, the report warns that AI could also cause a downturn if the venture capital funding driving this growth subsides. The forecast also notes a 12.9% growth in global ad revenue in Q2 2026, with a predicted 9.8% increase in Q3 excluding U.S. midterm political ads.
Global ad market grows 11.9% in 2026; print, TV weak
According to Warc Media's forecast, the global advertising market is set to grow by 11.9% in 2026 to $1.34 trillion, following 10% growth in 2024 and 2025. Key growth drivers include investments in AI and major events like the Olympics and the FIFA World Cup. Social media will see the strongest growth at 21.3% to $394.6 billion, followed by VOD, retail media, search, and DOOH. Traditional media declines: TV down 1.8%, print down 0.9%, and radio down 3.0%. Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta will capture a combined 59.7% of global ad spend outside China. The growth is expected to normalize to 8.4% in 2027 and 7.9% in 2028. AI is reshaping targeting, creative, and campaign optimization, and creating new ad environments like generative search.
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