Observed Signal · Jul 29, 2026 · Research Report · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Retail / Consumer Trends Market: Back-to-school shoppers favor essentials over apparel
Reports from Circana and KPMG indicate back-to-school consumers are prioritizing essentials — school supplies and technology — while spreading apparel purchases across the school year rather than completing a single wardrobe refresh. Circana forecasts a modest decline in kids’ apparel dollar sales in Q3 driven by lower unit demand and finds significant consumer concern about clothing and footwear prices. KPMG's Consumer Pulse survey shows sporting participation is widespread and sporting supplies are increasingly treated as essential. Additional research notes higher use of BNPL financing and continued reliance on mass merchants for back-to-school shopping.
Consumer-survey and sales-forecast findings inform retail merchandising, category marketing and seasonal media planning, but do not represent a major platform or policy change for the AdTech industry.
Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Circana reports back-to-school shoppers are focusing on essentials such as school supplies and technology and plan to spread apparel purchases across the school year.
- Circana’s Future of Apparel forecast projects kids’ apparel dollar sales will decline 1% to 2% in Q3, primarily due to a 3% decline in unit demand.
- A Circana omnibus survey found 57% of consumers are at least somewhat concerned about how prices will impact back-to-school clothing and footwear budgets; 24% said they were very concerned.
- KPMG’s Consumer Pulse Back-to-School 2026 survey found about 70% of families expect sports participation this school year; outdoor sports account for 43% of activities and soccer is the most popular at 47%.
- Omnisend reported 45% of families plan to use buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing for back-to-school purchases, and Deloitte reported 80% plan to shop at mass merchants.
Connected Companies & Entities
6 Entities mappedOmnisend
Ecommerce marketing automation for email, SMS and push.
“As parents look for ways to trim spending this year, Omnisend reported that 45% of families are planning to use buy now, pay later financing...”
NRF
Retail trade association monetising media, events and industry intelligence.
Informa TechTarget
B2B tech media and intent data platform for vendor demand generation.
“This website is owned and operated by Informa TechTarget, a global network that informs, influences and connects the world’s technology buye...”
Circana
Retail, consumer and media measurement platform for enterprises.
“Back-to-school shoppers are focusing on essentials like school supplies and technology for the first day of school and planning to spread ou...”
KPMG
Enterprise consulting network monetising transformation, risk and AI services.
“However, sporting supplies are a growing priority for families, per the Consumer Pulse Back-to-School 2026 survey from KPMG....”
Deloitte
Enterprise consulting and managed services network for digital transformation.
“Deloitte reported that 80% are planning to do their back-to-school shopping at mass merchants....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Track Real-Time Market Signals & Shifts
Set up custom watchlists to receive automated, evidence-grounded executive digests whenever material signals or shifts occur across your tracked landscape.