Observed Signal · Jul 9, 2026 · Market Research · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Back-to-school Shoppers Favor Mass Merchants, Department Stores
A 2026 Deloitte survey of more than 1,200 parents finds back-to-school spending largely flat as value and affordability drive retailer choice. Parents are expected to spend an average $557 per child (down $13 year-over-year, or about 6% after inflation). In-store shoppers plan to spend $521 per child while online shoppers plan $614. Mass merchants account for roughly 80% of planned spending, followed by online stores, warehouse membership clubs and department stores. Deloitte estimates the total back-to-school market at $30.4 billion. Economic sentiment is weak — 57% expect the economy to worsen — and parents plan to delay some purchases until late July/early August. Clothing spending is projected to rise 22% to $323 per child but is also the category most likely to be cut; tech spending is expected to fall about 16% to $417 per child. Parents who use generative AI and broader digital shopping tools tend to plan higher spend.
Survey data informs seasonal retail and media planning (channel, timing, category emphasis) and highlights consumer value-seeking behavior that can influence retail media and promotional strategies, but it is not industry-shifting.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Deloitte surveyed more than 1,200 parents in its 2026 annual back-to-school survey.
- Parents are expected to spend an average $557 per child, down $13 year-over-year (≈6% decline after inflation).
- In-store shoppers plan to spend $521 per child; online shoppers plan to spend $614 per child.
- Mass merchants account for roughly 80% of all planned back-to-school spending.
- Deloitte estimates the overall back-to-school market size at $30.4 billion; 57% of consumers expect the economy to get worse in coming months.
Connected Companies & Entities
3 Entities mapped“Back-to-school spending is expected to stay flat this year as parents of K-12 students look for value and approach the season with a mixture...”
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“Parents are expected to spend $557 per child, down $13 year over year, or down 6% when adjusted for inflation. Olha Romaniuk via Getty Image...”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Back-to-school spending 'moderate at best'
A Circana report warns that the 2026 back-to-school season will be “moderate at best,” with lower unit demand and revenue pressure driven in part by pricing. Circana found overall retail sales revenue fell 1% year-over-year in July and unit sales dropped 2%. Discretionary general merchandise dollar sales declined 4.3% for the four weeks ending Aug. 1, with unit demand down 3.9%. Circana says spending growth is concentrated among higher-income consumers who prioritize purchases. Additional data cited include Omnisend findings on parental financial stress and increased buy-now-pay-later use, and NRF/Prosper forecasts that K-12 spending could reach $43.3 billion in 2026.
Back-to-school spending forecast hits record highs
A National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics survey forecasts record back-to-school spending in 2026: $43.3 billion for K–12 (up from $39.4 billion in 2025) and a record $103.5 billion for college students, the first time it exceeds $100 billion. The report found 62% of consumers had already started shopping by early July (down from 67% a year earlier), while many shoppers are delaying purchases or spreading them out due to affordability concerns. Retailers including Target, Kohl’s and Walmart rolled out early promotions and markdowns; over half of surveyed shoppers said they bought supplies during major sales events such as Target Circle Deal Days, Walmart Deals and Amazon Prime Day. NRF economist Mark Mathews emphasized affordability as a top concern for families and retailers.
Back-to-school shoppers favor essentials over apparel
Reports from Circana and KPMG indicate back-to-school consumers are prioritizing essentials — school supplies and technology — while spreading apparel purchases across the school year rather than completing a single wardrobe refresh. Circana forecasts a modest decline in kids’ apparel dollar sales in Q3 driven by lower unit demand and finds significant consumer concern about clothing and footwear prices. KPMG's Consumer Pulse survey shows sporting participation is widespread and sporting supplies are increasingly treated as essential. Additional research notes higher use of BNPL financing and continued reliance on mass merchants for back-to-school shopping.
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