Observed Signal · Aug 21, 2025 · Earnings Report · Source: Quo Vadis News · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
AdTech, MarTech, Agency Update: 2Q25 Review
With 2Q25 earnings behind us, public adtech and martech players face a market defined by channel shifts and investor scrutiny. This update reconstructs its AdTech12 equal-dollar portfolio starting Jan 1, 2022, spanning 12 tickers (TTD, CRTO, APP, DSP, ZETA, MGNI, PUBM, DV, IAS, TBLA, TEAD, RAMP). Peak returns arrived February 2025, on par with the Nasdaq, before the sector retrenched. A $100 NASDAQ ETF would have returned about 35% over the same period. AppLovin (APP) was the largest contributor to the AdTech11 gains; removing APP would yield -26% in AdTech11. Other positives include Zeta, Magnite, and Viant. In MarTech, Shopify (SHOP) rose modestly while the space remained negative overall. The analysis argues that Big Tech — Google, Meta, and Amazon — will consolidate roughly 71% of global ad spend by 2029, with the open web shrinking and Trade Desk positioned to gain in that space. The piece emphasizes moving from a farmer mindset to a data-rich landowner approach and hints at an industry-wide M&A uptick among legacy agencies.
2Q25 earnings overview and market impact
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- The AdTech12 portfolio includes 12 stocks: TTD, CRTO, APP, DSP, ZETA, MGNI, PUBM, DV, IAS, TBLA, TEAD, and RAMP.
- Portfolio started with $100 on Jan 1, 2022, dividing evenly across 12 stocks based on the 2022-01-01 price.
- Peak portfolio performance occurred in February 2025, on par with the Nasdaq.
- AppLovin (APP) was the largest contributor to AdTech11's gains; removing APP would yield -26% for AdTech11.
- By 2029, Google, Meta, and Amazon are projected to capture about 71% of global ad spend, with Big Tech growth in the mid-to-high teens; open web share is expected to shrink from ~7% in 2024 to ~3% by 2029.
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Related Market Signals & Shifts
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AdTech Portfolios Diverge: Gains, Losses, and Market Shifts
Quo Vadis published a 3Q25 AdTech, MarTech and agency update reviewing quarter results, portfolio performance and market dynamics. The newsletter reports the equal-weighted AdTech12 portfolio is up 13% year-to-date as of 3Q25 reporting (peak in Feb 2025), while its MarTech8 portfolio is down 47% and the agency portfolio shows wide dispersion (Publicis up ~48%; WPP down ~75%). The piece highlights The Trade Desk's weakened market capitalization (below $20B) and uncertain management plan, AppLovin and Zeta as relative outperformers, Teads' weak valuation after Outbrain’s acquisition, and DoubleVerify's attractive valuation potential. The author argues advertisers prioritize measurable outcomes over transparency, explaining continued growth of black-box/automation products (Meta Advantage+, Google PMax) and rising challenges in CTV/open-web inventory transparency. The newsletter includes event housekeeping for Advertising Economic Forum (NYC) and a London Last Media Dollar live event.
4Q25 & FY25 AdTech/MarTech Earnings Update
Quo Vadis reports on 4Q25 and full‑year 2025 results across AdTech, MarTech, social and agency portfolios, and previews the Advertising Economic Forum in New York City on March 18–19, 2026. The author summarizes equal‑weighted portfolio performance since January 2022: the AdTech11 portfolio is down 54% since inception, AdTech11+ (including AppLovin) is down 33% while AppLovin alone is up 361%, MarTech8 is down 57%, SocialTech4 is up 18%, and Agency5 is down 43%. Major tech benchmarks Google and Meta are up ~103% combined since January 2022 and accounted for 40% of global ad spending in 2025. The note highlights IAS being taken private by Novacap for $1.9 billion, MNTN’s post‑IPO market cap/EV figures, CTV expansion activity (Pinterest/TVScientific), and commentary on economic moats, high betas, and valuation pressure amid AI-driven disruption.
AdTech Struggles: Portfolios Plummet Amid Market Shifts
Quo Vadis published a 4Q25 and full‑year 2025 AdTech/MarTech update and promoted the Advertising Economic Forum (New York City, March 18–19, 2026). The newsletter reports equal‑weighted portfolio performance since Jan 1, 2022: the AdTech11 portfolio is down 54% since inception (AdTech11+ including AppLovin is down 33%), MarTech8 is down 57%, SocialTech4 is up 18%, and the Agency5 portfolio is down 43%. Notable corporate moves include IAS being taken private by Novacap for $1.9 billion (removed from the portfolio in Jan 2026), MNTN’s IPO (added June 2025) with a current market cap of $720M and enterprise value of $510M, and Pinterest’s acquisition of TVScientific. The note highlights Google and Meta together accounted for ~40% of global ad spending in 2025 and estimates their combined share could reach 46% by 2030. The memo emphasizes economic moats (ROIC vs. cost of capital), high portfolio betas (~1.3–1.8), and AI’s influence on investor sentiment.
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