Observed Signal · Mar 2, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: https://triscari.substack.com/feed · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Negative
4Q25 & FY25 AdTech/MarTech Earnings Update
Quo Vadis reports on 4Q25 and full‑year 2025 results across AdTech, MarTech, social and agency portfolios, and previews the Advertising Economic Forum in New York City on March 18–19, 2026. The author summarizes equal‑weighted portfolio performance since January 2022: the AdTech11 portfolio is down 54% since inception, AdTech11+ (including AppLovin) is down 33% while AppLovin alone is up 361%, MarTech8 is down 57%, SocialTech4 is up 18%, and Agency5 is down 43%. Major tech benchmarks Google and Meta are up ~103% combined since January 2022 and accounted for 40% of global ad spending in 2025. The note highlights IAS being taken private by Novacap for $1.9 billion, MNTN’s post‑IPO market cap/EV figures, CTV expansion activity (Pinterest/TVScientific), and commentary on economic moats, high betas, and valuation pressure amid AI-driven disruption.
Summarizes sector earnings and multi‑company portfolio performance for AdTech/MarTech/agency sectors, notes M&A and IPO updates (IAS privatization, MNTN IPO), and highlights Big Tech ad share — relevant for industry strategy, investment and competitive dynamics.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Advertising Economic Forum scheduled for March 18–19, 2026 in New York City (Day 1 at Horizon Media; Day 2 at The New York Times Center).
- AdTech11 portfolio is down 54% since inception; AdTech11+ (including AppLovin) is down 33%; AppLovin (APP) is up 361%.
- MarTech8 portfolio is down 57%; SocialTech4 portfolio is up 18%; Agency5 portfolio is down 43% since inception.
- IAS was taken private by Novacap for $1.9 billion and removed from the portfolio in January 2026; MNTN was added after its June 2025 IPO and is reported trading at a $720 million market capitalization and $510 million enterprise value.
- Google (GOOG) and Meta (META) combined were estimated to control 40% of global ad spending in 2025 and would have returned ~103% on a 50/50 $100 investment since January 2022 (GOOG +115%, META +91%).
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Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
AdTech Struggles: Portfolios Plummet Amid Market Shifts
Quo Vadis published a 4Q25 and full‑year 2025 AdTech/MarTech update and promoted the Advertising Economic Forum (New York City, March 18–19, 2026). The newsletter reports equal‑weighted portfolio performance since Jan 1, 2022: the AdTech11 portfolio is down 54% since inception (AdTech11+ including AppLovin is down 33%), MarTech8 is down 57%, SocialTech4 is up 18%, and the Agency5 portfolio is down 43%. Notable corporate moves include IAS being taken private by Novacap for $1.9 billion (removed from the portfolio in Jan 2026), MNTN’s IPO (added June 2025) with a current market cap of $720M and enterprise value of $510M, and Pinterest’s acquisition of TVScientific. The note highlights Google and Meta together accounted for ~40% of global ad spending in 2025 and estimates their combined share could reach 46% by 2030. The memo emphasizes economic moats (ROIC vs. cost of capital), high portfolio betas (~1.3–1.8), and AI’s influence on investor sentiment.
AdTech Portfolios Diverge: Gains, Losses, and Market Shifts
Quo Vadis published a 3Q25 AdTech, MarTech and agency update reviewing quarter results, portfolio performance and market dynamics. The newsletter reports the equal-weighted AdTech12 portfolio is up 13% year-to-date as of 3Q25 reporting (peak in Feb 2025), while its MarTech8 portfolio is down 47% and the agency portfolio shows wide dispersion (Publicis up ~48%; WPP down ~75%). The piece highlights The Trade Desk's weakened market capitalization (below $20B) and uncertain management plan, AppLovin and Zeta as relative outperformers, Teads' weak valuation after Outbrain’s acquisition, and DoubleVerify's attractive valuation potential. The author argues advertisers prioritize measurable outcomes over transparency, explaining continued growth of black-box/automation products (Meta Advantage+, Google PMax) and rising challenges in CTV/open-web inventory transparency. The newsletter includes event housekeeping for Advertising Economic Forum (NYC) and a London Last Media Dollar live event.
2Q26 AdTech Portfolio Update: Consolidation & Exits
The Quo Vadis 2Q26 portfolio update reviews performance since January 2022 and highlights accelerating consolidation across the public AdTech landscape. BigTech (Google, Meta) continued to outperform; the AdTech11 portfolio remains down since inception but improved slightly from 1Q. Several mid-market AdTech names have exited public markets via strategic or PE deals (IAS to Novacap, LiveRamp to Publicis, Criteo to Vista, DoubleVerify to Nielsen). The note ranks remaining AdTech11 names by probability of being acquired in the next 12 months (PubMatic, Teads, Viant, Taboola, Magnite, MNTN, Zeta, The Trade Desk). The author argues scale and valuation pressures are driving a stampede of M&A, leaving fewer independent public AdTech assets and reshaping sector dynamics.
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