Observed Signal · Aug 18, 2026 · Other · Source: UX Collective · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Large Language Models (LLM) & AI Market: Purpose of Software in the Age of AI
Michael Burnett argues that despite enormous increases in computing power and visible efficiency gains, software has not produced sustained macroeconomic productivity growth. Reviewing historical economic research and productivity data (citing Solow, Krugman, Gordon and others), he contends the purpose of software is to increase the density of information in digital outputs rather than to raise value output per hour. Burnett revisits the "productivity paradox," discusses Baumol's cost disease, and hypothesizes a "disengagement curve" driven by search/chat workflows. He warns that AI and LLMs will act as force multipliers for software production but are unlikely to change software's fundamental relationship to measured productivity, even as they create more digital output and new efficiencies.
Analytical long-form perspective linking AI/LLMs to macro productivity debates; informs strategic thinking but does not announce platform policy, product releases, or market-moving transactions.
Wichtigste Kernpunkte & Evidenz
- Author Michael Burnett published a long-form essay arguing software has not increased macroeconomic productivity.
- Computing power at the frontier has increased by roughly 10^12 (a trillion-fold) since 1971, with transistor counts and FLOPS rising dramatically.
- Burnett cites economists and studies including Robert Solow, Paul Krugman, Robert J. Gordon, Federal Reserve analyses (Oliner & Sichel), Brookings, NBER, and others to support his analysis.
- He proposes the purpose of software is to increase the density of information per unit of digital output, not to increase productivity (value output per hour).
- The essay introduces the author's hypothesis of a 'disengagement curve' and revisits the 'Productivity Paradox' and Baumol's cost disease in the context of IT and AI.
Verknüpfte Unternehmen
12 verknüpfte UnternehmenNetflix
Streaming-Plattform mit Einnahmen aus Abonnements und digitaler Werbung.
“Has quality of life increased since the semiconductor was invented? We have Spotify, Netflix, LLMs, and very large TVs....”
Anthropic
Anbieter von KI-Basismodellen, der intelligente KI-Assistenten und Modell-APIs für Entwickler und Unternehmen bereitstellt.
“Chart generated by Claude based on publicly available data points....”
Spotify
Audio-Streaming-Plattform mit Abonnements, Werbemöglichkeiten und Creator-Tools für den globalen Markt.
“Has quality of life increased since the semiconductor was invented? We have Spotify, Netflix, LLMs, and very large TVs....”
Apple
Globaler Technologiekonzern mit integriertem Betriebssystem-Ökosystem, proprietärer Consumer-Hardware und einem hochskalierbaren First-Party-Advertising- und Services-Netzwerk.
“2023 (Apple M2 Ultra): 134 billion transistors...”
NVIDIA
Ein führendes Unternehmen für Accelerated Computing, das KI-Software, Cloud-Infrastruktur und Gaming-Technologien bereitstellt.
“2018 (NVIDIA V100, as the frontier moved from CPU to GPU): ~125 TFLOPS 2023 (NVIDIA H100): ~2,000 TFLOPS (2 petaFLOPS at the low precision A...”
Gallup
Forschungs-, Bewertungs- und Analyseplattformen für Organisationen und Institutionen.
“Gallup found that globally 41% of employees experienced a lot of stress the previous day (2024 report)....”
AMD
Ein US-amerikanisches Halbleiterunternehmen, das Hochleistungsprozessoren und Computer-Chips für Unternehmen und Konsumenten entwickelt.
“2018 (AMD Ryzen 7 2700X): 4.8 billion transistors...”
Intel
Anbieter von Computing-Infrastruktur, der Halbleiter, AI-Tooling und Plattformen für Unternehmen vereint.
“1971 (Intel 4004): 2,300 transistors 1993 (Intel Pentium): 3.1 million transistors...”
The New York Times
Abonnement-fokussierter Publisher mit Premium-Advertising, Games, Cooking und Sport-Berichterstattung.
“Paul Krugman, another Nobel winner, wrote in his NYT column in March 2023, “Like previous leaps in technology, [AI] will make the economy mo...”
Statista
Abonnementbasierte Market-Intelligence- und Statistik-Plattform für strukturierte B2B-Marktforschung und datengestützte Entscheidungsfindung.
“22% of US employees rate their level of burnout as high or very high....”
Medium
Eine abonnementbasierte digitale Publishing-Plattform, die ein geschlossenes Lese- und Autoren-Ökosystem ohne Werbe-Monetarisierung orchestriert.
“Get Michael Burnett’s stories in your inbox Join Medium for free to get updates from this writer....”
OpenAI
Anbieter von Foundation-Modellen, der KI-Software, APIs und Abonnements für Entwickler, Unternehmen und Endverbraucher vertreibt.
“ChatGPT generated this “newspaper style cartoon” in seconds....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Track Real-Time Market Signals & Shifts
Set up custom watchlists to receive automated, evidence-grounded executive digests whenever material signals or shifts occur across your tracked landscape.