Financials Market: Apollo Warns Hyperscaler Debt Risk Rising

In a Wednesday note, Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok warned that credit default swaps (CDS) tied to hyperscaler bonds are signaling increasing credit risk, with the spread between hyperscaler and bank CDS widening to around 60 basis points from near zero since October 2025. Slok attributes this to a debt-financed AI capex cycle with rising leverage, negative free cash flow, and uncertain payback on depreciating assets. The warning follows calls from frontier model leaders to slow AI advancement due to safety concerns, which could impact cloud providers. While some technology investors like Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets see improving margins, economists like Dean Baker of CEPR note that sophisticated CDS investors are attaching greater risk to the debt of the most profitable companies, suggesting substantial risk in AI investments.