Observed Signal · Oct 15, 2026 · Research / Data Study · Source: https://martech.org/feed/ · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Seasonality Adjustments Backfire on Black Friday
An analysis by Optmyzr, based on 5,886 Google Ads accounts during Black Friday-Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2024, reveals that advertisers using seasonality adjustments experienced a 34% increase in CPCs and a 15.7% decrease in ROAS, while those who did not saw only a 17% CPC rise and a 5.7% ROAS increase. The pattern held across 2022 and 2023. The study suggests that seasonality adjustments for widely recognized events like Black Friday are counterproductive because Google's Smart Bidding already anticipates the lift, leading to overbidding. Instead, the article recommends using guardrails, such as alerts and policies, and leveraging AI assistants via Optmyzr's MCP for portfolio-wide monitoring and management. It also highlights the importance of clean conversion tracking and adjusting tROAS targets for volume, not seasonality adjustments.
The article provides actionable, data-driven insights into Google Ads Smart Bidding behavior during peak shopping periods, based on a large sample of accounts. This analysis helps advertisers optimize their strategies, directly impacting ad spend efficiency and ROI.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Optmyzr analyzed 5,886 Google Ads accounts during Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2024.
- Advertisers using seasonality adjustments saw CPCs rise 34% and ROAS fall 15.7%.
- Advertisers without adjustments saw CPCs rise 17% and ROAS rise 5.7%.
- The pattern held across 2022, 2023, and 2024.
- Black Friday conversion rate bump shrank from 17.5% in 2022 to 7.5% in 2024.
Connected Companies & Entities
2 Entities mapped“Optmyzr analyzed 5,886 Google Ads accounts during Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2024.”
“Scott Desgrosseilliers, CEO, Wicked Reports, commented on campaign saturation.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Black Friday: High Stakes Amid Rising Prices and Risks
The AdExchanger podcast surveys Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) trends, noting that the four-day period has merged shopping events into a single buying window. Salesforce data show Black Friday sales up 6% globally and 3% in the US, with Cyber Weekend and Cyber Monday collectively rising about 7%. Prices are up roughly 7%, meaning consumers bought roughly the same volume despite higher costs. The economy is described as a K-shaped pattern, with the top 10% of earners accounting for half of US spending while lower-income households face SNAP reductions and rising prices. Brands are targeting smaller audiences, increasing risk for marketers trying to reach broad audiences inexpensively. On the platforms side, ad buyers portray Meta as a villain due to perceived AI-support and transparency gaps. The piece also highlights the growth of B2B scams targeting advertisers, including phishing and account-theft tactics.
Wicked Reports 2.0 October Release: 6 New Features
New blog posts added: 'The Paid Traffic Truth: YouTube new customers nearly triple in value in 30 days' and 'Wicked Reports 2.0 October Release: 6 New Features'.
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