Observed Signal · Dec 1, 2023 · Earnings Report · Source: Quo Vadis News · Impact: 5/5 · Sentiment: Negative
Post-3Q23 Earnings & Portfolio Update
Charles Munger, the legendary value investor, has died, prompting scrutiny of pure-play programmatic adtech investments. The piece notes that 18 public adtechs are tracked and argues that returning 18% on capital over long horizons is unlikely, challenging the case for many adtech businesses. It reports 3Q23 earnings across AdTech as a backdrop to potential 2024–2025 activity, with The Trade Desk (TTD) leading the AdTech18 portfolio but facing an 18% drop after disappointing Q4 guidance. Magnite has 334% gains since 2018 but sits 59% below its IPO price. AdTechCore10 shows seven of ten holdings performing well in 3Q23; overall AdTech Core10 is up about 419% since January 2018, while AdTech18 is up about 348%. AdTech10 3Q23 revenue growth is 14.9% YoY (TTM 10.6%), with a near-5% TTM growth projected by end-2024. The Core Ten holds roughly $3.6B in excess cash, implying ~7.2B in dry powder for potential M&A in 2024–2025.
Earnings-focused analysis with portfolio performance implications for the AdTech industry.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- TTD led the AdTech18 portfolio but shared an 18% post-earnings drop after Q4 guidance.
- Magnite gained 334% since 2018 but trades 59% below its IPO price.
- AdTech Core10: seven of ten names positive in 3Q23; AdTech Core10 up 419% since Jan 2018; AdTech18 up 348%.
- AdTech10 3Q23 YoY revenue growth: 14.9%; TTM growth: 10.6%; projected 5% by end-2024.
- Core Ten cash: ~$3.6B excess cash; potential $7.2B dry powder assuming 50/50 cash/stock deals; expectation of more M&A in 2024–2025.
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AdTech Portfolios Diverge: Gains, Losses, and Market Shifts
Quo Vadis published a 3Q25 AdTech, MarTech and agency update reviewing quarter results, portfolio performance and market dynamics. The newsletter reports the equal-weighted AdTech12 portfolio is up 13% year-to-date as of 3Q25 reporting (peak in Feb 2025), while its MarTech8 portfolio is down 47% and the agency portfolio shows wide dispersion (Publicis up ~48%; WPP down ~75%). The piece highlights The Trade Desk's weakened market capitalization (below $20B) and uncertain management plan, AppLovin and Zeta as relative outperformers, Teads' weak valuation after Outbrain’s acquisition, and DoubleVerify's attractive valuation potential. The author argues advertisers prioritize measurable outcomes over transparency, explaining continued growth of black-box/automation products (Meta Advantage+, Google PMax) and rising challenges in CTV/open-web inventory transparency. The newsletter includes event housekeeping for Advertising Economic Forum (NYC) and a London Last Media Dollar live event.
Olyzon Launches Agentic Orchestration Platform for Advertising
Olyzon, an agentic orchestration platform for advertising, has launched its technology live in market, optimizing real advertising campaigns. The platform enables agencies and brands to orchestrate media budgets across CTV, YouTube, social, digital audio, and DOOH from a single interface, integrating with existing DSPs, SSPs, and measurement partners. It is positioned as a working example of a Unified Media Platform (UMP), connecting systems that previously operated in silos. Key integrations include Amazon DSP, DV360, The Trade Desk, Yahoo DSP, Universal Ads, Vibe, Spotify, PubMatic, Swivel.ai, DoubleVerify, Xpln, Lucid, and Innovid. The launch was announced at Advertising Week New York.
Former Utiq and Xandr/Microsoft Leader Joins illuma for AI Scaling
illuma, a London-based AI company specializing in contextual decision intelligence, has appointed Michel Guillon as head of solutions architecture. Guillon brings two decades of adtech leadership experience from Utiq and AppNexus/Xandr/Microsoft, where he worked closely with illuma's integrations. His role will help partners integrate illuma's contextual intelligence into their systems at enterprise scale, leveraging his deep knowledge of DSP and SSP architecture and data interoperability. illuma's AI technology is used by brands, agencies, publishers, and platforms to optimize advertising decisions in real time, and is available through major platforms including The Trade Desk, Equativ, Index Exchange, Amazon, DV360, Yahoo, OpenX, PubMatic, and Magnite. The appointment underscores illuma's expansion across leading advertising platforms.
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