Observed Signal · May 18, 2026 · Analysis · Source: CNBC Technology · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
It's Not Too Late to Buy Nvidia
A CNBC Investing Club analysis (published May 18, 2026) argues investors who do not yet own Nvidia should consider starting a position and 'own it, don't trade it.' The piece notes Nvidia's upcoming earnings (due after Wednesday's close at the time of publication) and highlights the company's valuation: the article cites Nvidia trading at about 24x forward earnings versus peers (Broadcom 28x, Marvell 39x, AMD 44x, Intel 86x). It references comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on agentic AI needing vastly more compute and notes hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) announced at least $695 billion in capex plans for the year. The author emphasizes long-term upside potential while acknowledging near-term volatility around the earnings release.
Investment analysis about Nvidia's valuation, upcoming earnings and large hyperscaler capex; relevant to tech and AI investors but not an AdTech-specific platform, policy change, or industry-shifting announcement.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Article published May 18, 2026 by Zev Fima on CNBC
- Nvidia cited at ~24x forward earnings in the article; Broadcom 28x, Marvell 39x, Advanced Micro Devices 44x, Intel 86x
- Nvidia earnings were due after Wednesday's close relative to the May 18, 2026 publication
- Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) said agentic AI will require roughly 100 times more computing power than currently available, as quoted in the article
- Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta revealed combined capital expenditure plans of at least $695 billion for the year, a 14% increase from a prior estimate of $608 billion
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Nvidia Rally Pressures Bulls Ahead of Earnings
Nvidia's stock has surged roughly 20% since May 5, lifting its market capitalization to about $5.7 trillion and creating heavy options-market exposure ahead of the company’s quarterly results. Reports that the U.S. cleared a small number of Chinese firms to buy Nvidia H200 AI processors — and talk of a possible U.S.-China trade reopening — helped fuel the rally. Many bullish call buyers are already in the money, concentrating large delta risk into near-term expirations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report on May 20, 2026. Traders expect an outsized post-earnings move: implied volatility for the print is elevated relative to recent quarters. Market participants warn that significant option expiries this week could amplify price moves if the stock fails to hold gains into the close.
Nvidia stock jumps after blockbuster earnings
Nvidia shares rose about 6% in premarket trading after the company reported strong earnings and provided upbeat revenue guidance for fiscal 2028. CFO Colette Kress forecasted 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, while CEO Jensen Huang said demand likely exceeds that figure but supply constraints limit shipment. Nvidia said its AI Clouds, industrial, and enterprise (ACIE) customers generated $40.3 billion in sales for the quarter, up 138% year-over-year. Analysts noted supply issues at TSMC and memory shortages, and some flagged a potential competitive threat from custom AI chips being developed by hyperscalers and AI labs.
How Nvidia Traded in the Last 16 Quarters
The CNBC Options Action piece analyzes how Nvidia has historically traded around earnings, showing options-implied moves have frequently overestimated actual post-earnings stock swings. Using Cboe LiveVol data, the article reports implied volatility into earnings averages 6.7% versus an average realized response of 4.6%, and that options pricing overestimated Nvidia’s post-report swing in six of the past seven quarters (14 of the past 20). Ahead of the upcoming report, implied volatility peaked at its highest since March before falling to about 5.9% as the stock slipped. The story notes pressure on Nvidia after a 34% rally from March lows and a recent trillion-dollar market-cap gain, and includes trader commentary about the high expectations and recent post‑earnings selloffs. Published May 20, 2026 by Oliver Renick.
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