Observed Signal · Sep 29, 2026 · Forecast / Trend Report · Source: https://martech.org/feed/ · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
Provides valuable insights into consumer spending trends during the holiday season, which is crucial for advertisers and retailers planning campaigns. The data highlights shifts towards e-commerce, price sensitivity, and AI-assisted shopping, informing digital advertising strategies.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year.
- AlixPartners expects holiday retail sales growth of 4-7%.
- PwC expects average gift spending to decline 2% to $708 per consumer.
- Sprout Social found 56% of consumers plan to reduce holiday spending due to economic conditions.
- Adobe expects AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites to jump 130% during the holiday season.
Connected Companies & Entities
5 Entities mapped“Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to reach $275.1 billion in November and December, up 6.7% from last year....”
“PwC expects gift spending to decline 2%, even as consumers continue to protect holiday traditions....”
“Sprout Social found 56% of consumers plan to reduce holiday spending because of economic conditions....”
“Omnisend finds 78% of consumers feel the weight of price increases, prompting many to set firm spending limits....”
“Accenture, on the other hand, found average planned holiday spending rising nearly 12%, to $737....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026
Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.
Adobe Forecasts Record $275B Holiday Ecommerce Sales
Adobe Analytics forecasts U.S. online retail sales to hit a record $275.1 billion during the 2026 holiday season, a 6.7% year-over-year increase, despite a 15% drop in consumer sentiment. The forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. ecommerce sites, 100 million products, and 18 categories. The five-day Cyber Week period is expected to drive $47.5 billion, representing 17.3% of total holiday sales. The article mentions that AI and buy-now-pay-later will play growing roles, but the full details are behind a paywall. The data comes from Adobe Analytics, and the article references a September survey from the University of Michigan.
Holiday E-Commerce Spend to Reach $275B, Essentials Focus
Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales (Nov 1-Dec 31) to grow 6.7% YoY to $275.1 billion, with Cyber Week sales up 7.4% to $47.5 billion and Cyber Monday set to exceed $15 billion. Consumers are increasingly using discounts to stock up on essentials rather than gifts, with categories like personal hygiene (+150%), clothing basics (+210%), baby products (+113%), pet products (+93%), and household cleaning (+49%) seeing significant spikes during Cyber Week. October's Prime Big Deal Days are expected to generate nearly $10 billion, reshaping the season. Mobile commerce will account for a record 63% of Thanksgiving Day spending, and BNPL is projected to reach $21.3 billion, with 82% of that on mobile. AI is also playing a major role, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites expected to surge 130%.
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