Observed Signal · Sep 8, 2026 · Forecast · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Retail Market: Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026
Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.
Relevant to retail and e-commerce, but not directly to AdTech/MarTech. Provides consumer spending forecast and AI adoption insights, but lacks specific advertising technology implications.
Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Bain & Company forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 4.5% YoY, exceeding $1 trillion.
- Inflation will account for over half of the nominal sales increase.
- Online sales expected to rise 9% YoY; in-store sales up 2.5%.
- 24% of consumers plan to use AI platforms (Google Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude) for holiday shopping, up from 17%.
- Factors like high gas prices, tariffs, and debt may curb spending.
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