Observed Signal · Sep 8, 2026 · Forecast · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026
Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.
Relevant to retail and e-commerce, but not directly to AdTech/MarTech. Provides consumer spending forecast and AI adoption insights, but lacks specific advertising technology implications.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Bain & Company forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 4.5% YoY, exceeding $1 trillion.
- Inflation will account for over half of the nominal sales increase.
- Online sales expected to rise 9% YoY; in-store sales up 2.5%.
- 24% of consumers plan to use AI platforms (Google Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude) for holiday shopping, up from 17%.
- Factors like high gas prices, tariffs, and debt may curb spending.
Connected Companies & Entities
2 Entities mappedOntology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
E-commerce to Outpace Holiday Retail Sales Growth with AI
A Deloitte forecast predicts e-commerce sales will outpace overall retail growth during the 2026 holiday season (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027). Total holiday retail sales are expected to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion, while e-commerce is projected to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion, aided by consumers' growing use of AI tools for shopping research. A Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start product discovery using AI tools like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up 17% from 2025. Increased disposable personal income, projected to grow 4.5-5.2%, is also a factor. Retailers who stocked up early in anticipation of tariff changes may benefit from a strong season.
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
Adobe Forecasts Record $275B Holiday Ecommerce Sales
Adobe Analytics forecasts U.S. online retail sales to hit a record $275.1 billion during the 2026 holiday season, a 6.7% year-over-year increase, despite a 15% drop in consumer sentiment. The forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. ecommerce sites, 100 million products, and 18 categories. The five-day Cyber Week period is expected to drive $47.5 billion, representing 17.3% of total holiday sales. The article mentions that AI and buy-now-pay-later will play growing roles, but the full details are behind a paywall. The data comes from Adobe Analytics, and the article references a September survey from the University of Michigan.
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