Observed Signal · Jan 7, 2026 · Research Report · Source: Trending Topics · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Gemini's Rise: AI Market Share Shifts in 2026
SimilarWeb's Global AI Tracker, based on web traffic, reveals a dramatic shift in the generative AI assistant market over the past year. OpenAI's ChatGPT remains the leader but has lost over 22 percentage points, dropping from 86.7% to 64.5% market share. Google's Gemini nearly quadrupled its share to 21.5%, crossing the 20% threshold for the first time. xAI's Grok reached 3.4%, surpassing Perplexity (2.0%) for the first time. DeepSeek holds 3.7%, while Anthropic's Claude and Microsoft's Copilot remain stable at 2.0% and 1.1%, respectively. The analysis excludes native app usage, focusing solely on website traffic.
Significant shift in the GenAI assistant market, with Google's Gemini gaining rapidly, affecting the AI infrastructure and tools used across advertising and marketing.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- ChatGPT's global web traffic share fell from 86.7% to 64.5% in twelve months.
- Google's Gemini market share nearly quadrupled from 5.7% to 21.5%.
- Grok from xAI reached 3.4% market share, overtaking Perplexity at 2.0%.
- The SimilarWeb analysis is based on web traffic only and excludes native app usage.
- DeepSeek holds 3.7%, Claude 2.0%, and Microsoft Copilot 1.1%.
Connected Companies & Entities
13 Entities mapped“the new Global AI Tracker from SimilarWeb shows...”
“ChatGPT from OpenAI remains the undisputed market leader...”
“Google with its AI assistant Gemini...”
“DeepSeek (3.7 percent), the Chinese AI provider...”
“Perplexity, the search-focused AI service...”
“Claude from Anthropic...”
“Microsoft's Copilot...”
“Bitpanda is rearranging its executive floor....”
“Krall began her career at McKinsey...”
“was most recently Global Head of Retail Marketing at Revolut...”
“held leadership positions at Sportradar...”
“having previously spent more than ten years at Deloitte...”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
AI Price War: OpenAI Gains Ground on Anthropic
The AI price war is intensifying, with OpenAI gaining significant ground on Anthropic among business customers. According to a Wall Street Journal report, spending on OpenAI and Anthropic models via the OpenRouter platform was nearly evenly split in September among roughly 120,000 companies using both, a shift from January when Anthropic held about 75% of that spending. OpenAI's aggressive price cuts on its GPT-5.6 lineup, including an 80% reduction on its smallest model Luna and 20% on Terra, are driving this change. Companies are increasingly prioritizing cost, combining multiple providers and using cheaper models for simpler tasks. Anthropic faces its own challenges, including capacity issues with Claude Code and data retention criticism. Both companies are preparing for IPOs, needing to demonstrate sustainable revenue to justify valuations exceeding $1 trillion.
AWNY, Jupiter Fest Spotlight Agentic Ads and Open Web
Advertising Week New York and the inaugural Jupiter Festival Miami highlighted the industry's shift toward agentic advertising and anxieties about the open web's future. Major announcements included TikTok's off-platform ad expansion and a new AI shopping agent, Meta's AI campaign assistant testing, and OpenAI's visual ads introduction. Paramount's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery closed, forming Skydance. Key themes were the threat of AI to publisher traffic, the rise of AI visibility tools, the early stage of agentic media buying, unsolved cross-platform measurement, and the booming sports and retail media sectors. Deals included PubX's acquisition of Compliant and a $5 million Series A, and OpenAI's reported $30 billion round talks with BlackRock and UAE investors.
ICANN Receives 1,615 New Top-Level Domain Applications
The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) has accepted applications for new generic top-level domains (gTLDs) for the first time since 2012. A total of 1,615 applications were submitted by 481 applicants, with a strong focus on AI-related domains. Ten companies, including Meta and OpenAI, applied for .agent, seven for .agi, and six for .asi. Meta filed 21 applications, including .instagram and .threads, while OpenAI filed 15, including .chatgpt and .codex. German entities like Adidas, Biontech, and Allianz also applied for brand-specific domains. The application fee can be up to $227,000 per domain. The article also highlights the financial success of country-code TLDs like .ai, which earned Anguilla about €59 million by November 2025.
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