Observed Signal · Oct 23, 2025 · Prediction · Source: ExchangeWire · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
AdTech Predictions: The Good, Bad, and Unbelievable Ahead
The article by Shirley Marschall surveys end-of-year predictions for advertising in 2026 and beyond, framing predictions as educated guesses about how programmatic ad markets will evolve. It covers topics like flat-earth marketing and the concentration of ad spend among major platforms, notes a high-profile Nvidia/OpenAI/Oracle collaboration, and highlights ongoing AI-driven advertising, podcasts, and the proliferation of AI-native audiences (Gen Alpha and Gen Nano). The piece also references Amazon's activity alongside Netflix, Spotify, and SiriusXM, and anticipates advertising in AI chat and evolving measurement/incrementality debates. Throughout, the author acknowledges the difficulty of forecasting and groups insights into “the good, the bad, and the made-up” for a readership focused on the esoteric side of AdTech.
Industry-wide predictions and references to major platforms and AI trends; not a product release or earnings report.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Between now and 2027, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and TikTok will absorb over $200bn in new revenue.
- WARC reports the majority of ad spend growth flowing to the largest platforms (monopolists).
- Notable collaboration/deal among Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle is highlighted in the predictions.
- Amazon is described as especially busy and linked with Netflix, Spotify, and SiriusXM.
- Gen Alpha and Gen Nano are identified as AI natives in the predictions.
Connected Companies & Entities
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AdTech Trends: AI Innovations and Regulatory Shifts Unveiled
AdExchanger's weekly comic, 'I Need Some Coffee Context Protocol' (posted January 23, 2026 at 12:15 am) highlights the digital advertising ecosystem through a Must Read carousel of industry developments. The feature covers iSpot's introduction of SAGE, an agentic AI platform with a ChatGPT-like interface for campaign ideas; OOH inventory taxonomy updates from the OAAA; IAB's AI regulatory framework for ad disclosures; and LiveRamp's Q4 earnings, which defied SaaS skepticism. Additional notes reference programmatic targeting via a GEO startup and anti-fraud efforts in CTV, illustrating a broad, regulatory- and performance-focused snapshot of adtech trends in early 2026.
Threads tests Gems to honor valuable posts daily
Threads is testing a new feature called Gems, which awards up to 25 outstanding conversations daily with a visible diamond badge. The selection is algorithm-based, focusing on originality, timeliness, and authentic discussion, regardless of follower count. Posts or direct replies qualify, but reposts and content cross-posted from Instagram are excluded. The feature is currently limited to public US-based accounts of users aged 18 and older, though the badges are visible globally, including in Germany. Recipients get a notification and can share the badge. Users can hide the label if desired. Initial hints appeared in August via app researcher Alessandro Paluzzi. Threads aims to encourage original and engaging content, with no negative impact on reach for non-recipients.
Meta Bans TikTok Ads on Its Platforms in Multiple Regions
Meta has banned advertising for TikTok on its platforms (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp) in several countries, including the USA, Japan, Vietnam, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, and Thailand. This action, confirmed by Meta spokesperson Chris Sgro, prevents both ByteDance and third-party advertisers from promoting TikTok within Meta's ecosystem. The ban is seen as a competitive move amidst escalating rivalry between Meta, ByteDance, and YouTube. It may also be linked to Meta's recent $16.7 billion settlement with US states over youth safety, which includes conditions that require competitors like TikTok and YouTube to implement similar protective measures, suggesting a strategic pressure tactic to ensure they share the cost and responsibility of child safety initiatives.
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