Bain & Company vs Morning Consult

Bain's Likelihood to Buy Metric Highlights Brand Trust in B2B

An opinion piece by Cos Mingides discusses Bain & Company's new Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing. Bain's research indicates that about 90% of B2B buyers ultimately purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that immediately come to mind when the buying process begins. True's 'Rule of Three' research adds that buyers typically have no more than three brands on that initial shortlist. Bain's findings suggest that B2B buying is less about formal evaluation and more about elimination of brands not already known or trusted. Being 'better' is not enough; brands must have pre-existing familiarity, trust, and confidence across the entire buying committee, including 'hidden buyers' in procurement, finance, legal, and operations. The article argues that brand activities should be measured by their impact on the likelihood of being chosen, not just awareness.

• Bain & Company has introduced a Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing.
• Bain research suggests around 90% of B2B buyers purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that come to mind at the start of the buying process.
• True's research, 'The Rule of Three in Every Purchase Decision', indicates that B2B buyers typically have no more than three brands on their initial shortlist.

E-commerce to Outpace Holiday Retail Sales Growth with AI

A Deloitte forecast predicts e-commerce sales will outpace overall retail growth during the 2026 holiday season (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027). Total holiday retail sales are expected to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion, while e-commerce is projected to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion, aided by consumers' growing use of AI tools for shopping research. A Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start product discovery using AI tools like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up 17% from 2025. Increased disposable personal income, projected to grow 4.5-5.2%, is also a factor. Retailers who stocked up early in anticipation of tariff changes may benefit from a strong season.

• Deloitte forecasts total holiday retail sales to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion.
• E-commerce sales are forecast to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion in the 2026 holiday season.
• Bain & Company reports 24% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools for product discovery, up 17% from 2025.

Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026

Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.

• Bain & Company forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 4.5% YoY, exceeding $1 trillion.
• Inflation will account for over half of the nominal sales increase.
• Online sales expected to rise 9% YoY; in-store sales up 2.5%.

Charting the Growth in Sports Betting

New article from Morning Consult on sports betting statistics.

How Brands Are Putting Morning Consult’s AI Connector to Work