Observed Signal · Sep 16, 2026 · Opinion/Analysis · Source: The Drum · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Bain's Likelihood to Buy Metric Highlights Brand Trust in B2B
An opinion piece by Cos Mingides discusses Bain & Company's new Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing. Bain's research indicates that about 90% of B2B buyers ultimately purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that immediately come to mind when the buying process begins. True's 'Rule of Three' research adds that buyers typically have no more than three brands on that initial shortlist. Bain's findings suggest that B2B buying is less about formal evaluation and more about elimination of brands not already known or trusted. Being 'better' is not enough; brands must have pre-existing familiarity, trust, and confidence across the entire buying committee, including 'hidden buyers' in procurement, finance, legal, and operations. The article argues that brand activities should be measured by their impact on the likelihood of being chosen, not just awareness.
New B2B marketing metric and insights from Bain are relevant for advertiser brands and marketing strategy, but it is an opinion piece rather than a major industry-shifting event.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Bain & Company has introduced a Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing.
- Bain research suggests around 90% of B2B buyers purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that come to mind at the start of the buying process.
- True's research, 'The Rule of Three in Every Purchase Decision', indicates that B2B buyers typically have no more than three brands on their initial shortlist.
- Earlier Bain research with The B2B Institute found that in 81% of purchases, all or almost all buying group members were familiar with the chosen brand before the buying process began.
- The article argues that B2B buying is more about elimination based on confidence and trust than rational evaluation.
Connected Companies & Entities
1 Entity mapped“Bain’s new Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric starts with the simple observation that buyers create a ‘Day 1 list’ – a shortlist of vendors that...”
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Seven Signals Predict B2B Buyability
At Cannes Lions, Mimi Turner of LinkedIn presented evidence for a 'buyability' framework that identifies seven creative signals which predict whether B2B campaigns lead to purchase. Warc manually scored 700 award‑nominated campaigns against these signals, finding 52% showed zero or one signal. Campaigns that carried three or more signals recorded substantially better outcomes (reported: 91% uplift in mid‑funnel brand health, 63% higher ROI, and 110% lift in incremental revenue). Turner grouped the seven signals into three 'Rs' — Recommendations, Relationships and Relatability — and argued the signals help both human buying groups and LLMs recommend vendors. Case evidence included ServiceNow’s character‑driven campaign (featuring Idris Elba) and research run with Evidenza showing finance leaders respond differently when work is framed as 'buyability.' The piece frames buyability as a measurable creative scaffold that ties creative work to commercial outcomes.
B2B Marketers Must Earn Professional Trust
Craig Duxbury's opinion piece argues that B2B marketers face a fundamental question: what are they trusted to decide? While they handle communications and campaigns, their professional judgment in growth strategy, market shaping, and investment recommendations is often not fully leveraged. The article highlights LinkedIn research showing 86% of US B2B marketers report younger buyers trust peer recommendations over branded content, underscoring a shift in trust dynamics. Duxbury advocates for building professional currency through deeper business understanding, commercial acumen, and the ability to bridge specialisms. He suggests that AI's role in providing information makes marketing judgment more critical than ever, positioning the professional's expertise as the key differentiator in a landscape where data is abundant but wisdom is scarce.
Long B2B Sales Cycles Hinder Measurement
Long B2B sales cycles — sometimes months, years, or longer — create major challenges for marketing attribution, optimization, and proving ROI. The author argues that tracking microjourneys (website visits, downloads, webinars) provides faster measurement but has limits because those signals often do not measure quality or purchase likelihood. He recommends eliminating vanity metrics and building better models that assess fit, likely purchase value, and customer quality rather than simply counting raw events. The piece is authored by Mike Maynard, Managing Director of Napier, and published on MarTech (owned by Semrush).
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