Observed Signal · Sep 28, 2026 · Market Signal · Source: Digiseg · Impact: 2/5
When Every Retailer Sells the Same TV, Compete on Audience
Technology is a holiday shopping staple. Consumer Technology Association (CTA) research found that 88% of U.S. holiday shoppers planned to buy technology products during the ...
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Two‑thirds of Holiday Shoppers Use AI
A survey by marketing firm Attentive of 600 U.S. consumers found that 67% of shoppers used AI tools in the past three months to help manage purchases this holiday season, with usage rising to 80% among Gen Z. The report also found that 71% plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday and 84% expect Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals to begin ahead of the day. Shoppers use AI to ask about products, compare options, get recommendations and find deals. Respondents prioritized incentives such as free shipping, gifts with purchase, price-match guarantees and loyalty perks when making buying decisions.
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
Holiday E-Commerce Spend to Reach $275B, Essentials Focus
Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales (Nov 1-Dec 31) to grow 6.7% YoY to $275.1 billion, with Cyber Week sales up 7.4% to $47.5 billion and Cyber Monday set to exceed $15 billion. Consumers are increasingly using discounts to stock up on essentials rather than gifts, with categories like personal hygiene (+150%), clothing basics (+210%), baby products (+113%), pet products (+93%), and household cleaning (+49%) seeing significant spikes during Cyber Week. October's Prime Big Deal Days are expected to generate nearly $10 billion, reshaping the season. Mobile commerce will account for a record 63% of Thanksgiving Day spending, and BNPL is projected to reach $21.3 billion, with 82% of that on mobile. AI is also playing a major role, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites expected to surge 130%.
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