Observed Signal · Feb 14, 2023 · Earnings Report · Source: Quo Vadis News · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Negative
TTD Earnings & Valuation: Quo Vadis Analysis
Quo Vadis analyzes The Trade Desk's earnings trajectory and current valuation, focusing on Q4 FY22 expectations as management prepares to report on Feb 15. The piece highlights TTD's gross ad spend impact, noting estimates of about $7.94B in FY22 at a 19% take rate and potential to top $8.0B with lower take rates; it argues TTD accounts for roughly 1% of global media spend per eMarketer. It questions whether the stock's ~12x book value multiple justifies the growth outlook, while presenting a DCF valuation to test 'value' vs 'momentum' cases. The newsletter critiques the reliability of unaudited gross ad spend and discusses ROIC, invested capital, and NOPAT as drivers of economic spread, projecting a negative spread around -5.2% before Q4 FY22. It references peer comparisons (Google, Apple, Moderna, and Advanced Micro) and invites subscribers to a March 1 valuation webinar and a March 2 Q&A.
Valuation-focused pre-earnings analysis of a major DSP; includes DCF modeling and market comparisons; subscriber webinars.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- TTD trades at ~12x book value; price around $49; market cap ~ $24B.
- FY22 gross ad spend forecast ~ $7.94B at 19% take rate; could exceed $8B if take rate falls to 18.85%.
- Predicted FY22 net revenue ~ $1.54B; gross ad spend ~ $8.12B at 19% take.
- Market consensus expects Q4 FY22 net revenue ~ $490M (midpoint $456M).
- Quo Vadis will host a March 1 valuation webinar and a March 2 Q&A for subscribers.
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