Observed Signal · Nov 10, 2026 · Corporate Update · Source: PubMatic · Impact: 3/5
The Electoral Map Was the Media Plan: What the Data Shows About Political Spend in the 2026 Midterms
PubMatic's analysis of political advertising in the 2026 midterms reveals that competitive states received four times the ad spend per House seat compared to safe states, with a 63% CPM premium. CTV dominated, accounting for 86% of political ad spend, rising to 92% in rural competitive areas. The analysis, based on nearly 2 billion impressions from August 31 to October 12, 2026, highlights a three-tier hierarchy of spending and underscores the role of programmatic infrastructure in enabling precise targeting.
This analysis provides actionable insights into political ad spend patterns, highlighting the growing dominance of CTV and the importance of programmatic targeting, which is valuable for advertisers, agencies, and publishers planning for future election cycles.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Political CTV spend on PubMatic's platform in Q2 2026 was more than four times its level in Q2 2022.
- Competitive states received four times the political ad spend per House seat compared to safe states.
- Competitive states commanded a 63% CPM premium over safe states during the measurement window.
- CTV accounted for 86% of political ad spend across all geographies, reaching 92% in rural competitive areas.
- California and New York, holding 18% of House seats, received only 8% of political spend.
- PubMatic analyzed close to 2 billion political impressions between August 31 and October 12, 2026.
Connected Companies & Entities
“PubMatic is the company that conducted the analysis and published the blog post.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Midterm Political Spending Inflates Ad Prices for Regional Brands
Political ad spending ahead of the November midterm elections is inflating TV and streaming ad prices for regular advertisers, particularly impacting regional and local brands. According to AdImpact, $8.2 billion of the $12 billion expected total political spend will go to TV or CTV. This has led to significant CPM increases in battleground states like Texas, with linear CPMs rising 10-15% and some programming up to 30-50%. Streaming CPMs have also risen from $34-35 to $43 in some cases. Local advertisers face pre-emptions, where media companies bump regular ads for political ones, leading to campaign disruptions. Some advertisers are seeking safe havens on platforms that ban political ads, like Netflix and Disney+, but this increases competition and prices there. Others are either leaning out of volatile DMAs or going dark on TV entirely, though this is seen as an extreme measure.
CTV Overtakes Cable in Political Ad Spend
In the 2026 US midterms cycle, political advertisers have spent a record $11.4 billion to date, up 28% from the 2022 midterms, according to AdImpact. Connected TV (CTV) received over half (53%) of the $2.5 billion increase, with CTV spend growing 122% to $2.4 billion, while linear cable fell 26% to under $1.3 billion. This marks the first time CTV has overtaken cable in a midterm election cycle. The data highlights the continued shift of political ad budgets from traditional linear TV to streaming platforms.
Why Political Advertising Could Put Premium Inventory Under Pressure
Political ad spending is rising ahead of the 2026 U.S. elections. See why CTV and premium programmatic inventory could face greater demand and pricing pressure.
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