Observed Signal · Aug 19, 2026 · Study / Report · Source: Retail-News · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Negative
Study: More Healthy Businesses Leaving the Market
A joint study by Creditreform and the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) finds that company closures in Germany reached their highest level in nearly 20 years in 2025. Around 188,000 businesses ceased operations in 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year. The study highlights that an increasing share of economically healthy firms—many without insolvency proceedings—are voluntarily exiting the market. Causes cited include difficult financing conditions, technological change, rising competition, skilled-labour shortages and demographic succession gaps. Sector impacts include notable rises in closures in construction, manufacturing, hospitality and healthcare (including a 23% rise in physician-practice closures). Regionally, Bremen recorded the highest closure rate (7.8%), while Baden-Württemberg and Hamburg had relatively low rates (5.3%).
The study signals a substantial rise in business exits across retail and other sectors, which can reduce advertiser demand and retail-media inventory and indicate broader economic stress for marketing budgets—relevant but not industry-shifting platform or policy news.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- A joint study by Creditreform and the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) examined company closures in Germany for 2025.
- Approximately 188,000 company closures were recorded in Germany in 2025, a 10% increase compared with 2024.
- About 87% of business closures occurred without insolvency proceedings; roughly 13% were associated with insolvency.
- Sector figures for 2025: >11,000 manufacturing closures (+10%); ~24,000 construction closures (+12%); >15,000 hospitality closures; ~11,000 healthcare closures (+12%), with physician-practice closures rising 23% to about 5,500.
- Regionally, Bremen had the highest closure rate at 7.8%; Baden-Württemberg and Hamburg recorded lower rates of 5.3%.
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German Retail Stores Fall Below 300,000
Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail sector continues to shrink: the Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE) estimates the number of physical stores will drop below 300,000 this year and forecasts a further decline to about 296,600 in 2026 (‑4,900). Since reunification the total has never been under 300,000; end-2015 there were ~372,000 stores. The pandemic accelerated closures; recent years saw large annual drops (e.g., 11,500 in 2021, 11,000 in 2022). HDE reports online retail grew real +3.5% in 2025 while in-store sales stagnated. Insolvencies in retail rose to 2,571 in 2025 (Allianz Trade), up from 2,291 the prior year, with insolvency cases including Görtz, Gerry Weber, Wormland and Eterna. HDE president Alexander von Preen warned of visible inner-city vacancies and urged political action on energy and labor costs. The retail sector’s annual trade-real-estate congress meets in Berlin this week, with Parliamentary State Secretary Sabine Poschmann among attendees.
Germany remains Europe's hotspot for major corporate insolvencies
According to Allianz Trade, Germany recorded 33 major corporate insolvencies (companies with annual revenues over €50 million) in the first half of 2026, a 10% increase year-over-year. This follows a record year in 2025 with 94 such cases. The automotive industry led with seven insolvencies, followed by retail with five. Germany accounted for about 30% of Western European large insolvencies in the past four quarters, with 97 cases, ahead of France (69), Italy (62), and the UK (45). Globally, large insolvencies rose 13% in H1 2026, with retail the most affected sector. Allianz Trade expects no sustained improvement, warning of risks to supply chains.
Corporate Insolvencies Remain Exceptionally High in July
The IWH insolvency trend shows that corporate insolvencies in Germany remained at an exceptionally high level in July 2026. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) recorded 1,689 insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in July — a 1% decrease from June, 7% higher than July 2025 and 75% above the pre-COVID July average. IWH early indicators reached a new peak in July, suggesting elevated insolvency pressure will persist in the coming months. Business-related services and financial/insurance services reached their highest insolvency numbers since 2020, while the hospitality sector saw fewer cases than usual. More than 13,000 jobs were affected by the largest 10% of insolvencies in July.
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