Observed Signal · Feb 12, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: TechCrunch · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Rivian's Software Surge Saves It Amid Automotive Decline
Rivian reported $5.38 billion in total revenue for 2025, an 8% increase from 2024, while automotive revenue declined 15% to $3.8 billion. Software and services revenue grew more than threefold to $1.55 billion, largely driven by a technology joint venture (JV) with Volkswagen Group. Under the JV, Rivian hit milestones in 2025 that triggered a $1 billion payout via a share sale; the JV is worth up to $5.8 billion and Rivian expects further payments and capital through 2027, including roughly $2 billion in 2026. Rivian confirmed its lower-cost R2 SUV will arrive by June 2026 and issued 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 vehicles. The company posted a $3.6 billion net loss in 2025 and expects an adjusted net loss of $1.8–2.1 billion in 2026, with capital expenditures projected at $1.95–2.05 billion.
The article contains Rivian's full-year financial results, large software/services revenue growth driven by a major JV with Volkswagen, milestone payments and forward guidance (deliveries, R2 launch, losses and capex). These facts materially affect Rivian's financial trajectory and the market for vehicle software partnerships.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Rivian reported $5.38 billion in total revenue for 2025, up from $4.97 billion in 2024.
- Automotive revenue fell 15% to $3.8 billion in 2025, partly due to a $134 million drop in regulatory credit sales and lower vehicle deliveries.
- Software and services revenue grew over threefold to $1.55 billion in 2025, primarily driven by a joint venture with Volkswagen Group.
- The Rivian–Volkswagen technology joint venture is worth up to $5.8 billion; Rivian received a $1 billion payout in 2025 after hitting milestones and expects about $2 billion more in 2026.
- Rivian confirmed the R2 SUV will come to market by June 2026 and provided 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 vehicles; the company reported a $3.6 billion net loss in 2025 and expects an adjusted net loss of $1.8–2.1 billion in 2026.
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Rivian Soars 15% After Beating Q4 Expectations
Rivian Automotive reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations and provided 2026 guidance calling for a substantial increase in vehicle deliveries driven by the launch of the R2 SUV. The company reported adjusted Q4 loss per share of $0.54 versus $0.68 expected and revenue of $1.29 billion versus $1.26 billion expected. For 2026 Rivian is targeting 62,000–67,000 vehicle deliveries (up 47%–59% year-over-year), expects adjusted pre-tax losses of $1.8–$2.1 billion and capital expenditures of $1.95–$2.05 billion. Rivian posted a full-year 2025 net loss of $3.6 billion (improved from $4.75 billion in 2024), achieved a gross profit of $144 million in 2025, and finished Q4 with $6.59 billion in total liquidity. Shares rose about 15% in after-hours trading following the results.
Rivian's Strong Earnings Propel Stock Amid Mobility Market Buzz
TechCrunch Mobility reviews mobility-sector earnings and deals, leading with Rivian’s Q4 and full-year results. Rivian’s software efforts and a technology joint venture with Volkswagen Group—including an expected additional $2 billion from VW—helped the company in 2025 and are expected to support it into 2026 as it launches the lower-cost R2 SUV. Rivian reported automotive cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of $100,900 in 2025 (down from $110,400 in 2024), delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, and guided to 62,000–67,000 deliveries in 2026; its stock rose about 27% after the results. The newsletter also summarizes AV and sensor market activity (Ouster acquiring Stereolabs, MicroVision buying Luminar assets), venture rounds (Ever $31M; Natilus $28M), Aurora operational updates, regulatory notes (SEC closed Fisker probe; EPA endangerment finding repeal), and product/service developments from Lyft, Uber, Waymo and others.
Rivian R2 Aims for Rapid U.S. Launch Amid Challenges
Rivian plans a rapid U.S. launch of its R2 compact/mid-size SUV and expects first deliveries in June, targeting 20,000–25,000 R2 sales this year. The company says the R2 will start at $45,000, though the initial launch will be a higher-trim dual-motor variant and the $45,000 listing was briefly removed from Rivian’s website; Rivian maintains it remains committed to that base price. TechCrunch’s analysis says hitting Rivian’s low-end target would make the R2 one of the fastest EVs to reach 20,000 U.S. sales, behind only the Tesla Model Y. The launch comes amid headwinds for U.S. EV demand after the federal $7,500 tax credit was eliminated and amid tariff and regulatory changes. Analysts expressed skepticism about Rivian’s aggressive ramp and potential near-term average transaction prices above $60,000.
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