Observed Signal · Jul 10, 2026 · Research Study · Source: Cord Cutters News · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Research: $5.7B Non-Streaming Movies & TV Market
Research from Worldpanel by Numerator and analysis by Predictionist finds U.S. consumers spent $5.7 billion on movies and TV outside streaming subscriptions between October 2025 and March 2026. Movie theaters drove 65% of that spending, with about 25% of Americans attending theaters (average 4.1 visits per six months). Digital rentals and purchases remain significant—9% of Americans bought a digital movie and 10% rented one in the period—and TV series purchases average about $18 per transaction. Predictionist projects continued ticket-price inflation (8.9% annually) could push the average U.S. ticket to $38 by 2036. The report also highlights concerns about digital 'ownership' (licensing), physical media decline, and regulatory moves such as California's AB 2426 requiring clearer disclosure that digital storefront sales are licenses.
Provides measurable data on non-streaming consumer spending and theatrical trends that inform media planning and ad opportunities, but is not a platform policy change or major industry-shifting event.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- U.S. consumers spent $5.7 billion on movies and TV outside streaming subscriptions between October 2025 and March 2026.
- Movie theaters accounted for 65% of the $5.7 billion non-subscription spending.
- 33% of Americans aged 16+ made at least one non-subscription movie or TV purchase or rental during that six-month window.
- Predictionist projects that, if ticket prices rise 8.9% annually, the average U.S. movie ticket would cost $38 by 2036.
- California passed AB 2426 requiring digital retailers to more clearly disclose that consumers are licensing, not owning, purchased digital content.
Connected Companies & Entities
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“Major industry shifts like Disney’s firing of its entire DVD/Blu-ray sales team also raise serious questions about the long-term future of p...”
“Sony began notifying PlayStation users that they would lose access to 551 movies and TV shows they had previously purchased once Sony’s lice...”
“Sony began notifying PlayStation users that they would lose access to 551 movies and TV shows they had previously purchased once Sony’s lice...”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Parks Associates: Streaming Drives U.S. Video Market
A Parks Associates forecast projects the U.S. video market will reach $190.7 billion by 2030, with that modest expansion driven primarily by streaming while traditional pay-TV continues to shrink. Total subscriptions are expected to rise to about 765 million, but average household monthly spending on video services will increase to nearly $123 by 2028 (from just over $101 in 2020). Parks Associates Research Director Michael Goodman says market maturity means growth depends on extracting more value from existing customers, with consumer behavior shifting toward service stacking and ad-supported tiers. Fewer than 35% of U.S. households are forecast to retain a traditional pay-TV package by 2027, prompting media companies to pursue churn-reduction tactics such as app rebundling and product restructuring.
Cinema Revenues Rise Despite Falling Attendance
US box office revenues have rebounded strongly in 2026, driven by higher ticket prices, premium formats and blockbuster releases, while actual ticket sales remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Through early August 2026 US box office receipts reached about $6.2 billion (around 15% above 2025), but ticket volume for the first seven months was roughly 471 million versus about 747 million in the same period of 2019. Premium formats (IMAX, Dolby Cinema) and higher average prices are major revenue drivers. Germany also shows growth: in 2025 Germany sold 91.9 million tickets (+2.1%) and generated €924 million in revenue (+6.4%), with an average ticket price around €10.05. Industry observers note the shift toward fewer, higher-spending regular visitors as streaming changes audience behaviour.
Movies Now Drive Nearly Half of U.S. Streaming Revenue
A Parrot Analytics analysis cited by State of Streaming finds movies have risen to nearly 50% of U.S. streaming revenue in 2025, up from about 27% in 2022. The shift is driven largely by older library titles: Pay-2/3 and library-window films now represent roughly two-thirds of total movie value, versus about a quarter in 2022. Platforms are favoring licensed films because they offer more predictable economics for profitability and subscriber retention; Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos is quoted saying deep film libraries create a reliable "weekend movie" habit that helps reduce churn. The piece notes live sports remain a high-stakes next frontier for streaming services but carry more complex economics compared with movies, which currently act as stable revenue and retention assets.
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