Observed Signal · Oct 22, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: Modern Retail · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Marketers Optimistic for 2026 Holiday Revenue Despite Pressures
Modern Retail+ Research's annual holiday report reveals that 76% of surveyed brands and retailers expect their 2026 holiday revenue to increase by 1-31% or more compared to 2025. No respondents expect a decrease of more than 11%. Despite this optimism, economic pressures such as inflation and high costs weigh on marketers. Executives from brands like A-Frame Brands and Ritual discuss strategies like bundling, gift-with-purchase, and targeting existing customers to manage costs. Mastercard's Susan Grossman emphasizes using better signals and personalization to deliver value over blanket discounting. The majority (81%) plan to keep discount levels similar to last year.
The article provides industry sentiment data on holiday revenue expectations, relevant for marketers planning budgets, but lacks specific product or company announcements.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- 76% of surveyed marketers expect 2026 holiday revenue to increase 1-31% or more vs 2025.
- 0% of respondents expect a decrease of more than 11% in holiday revenue.
- 81% of brands and retailers plan to keep 2026 holiday discounts similar to 2025.
- Ari Bloom, CEO of A-Frame Brands, cites high costs and soft economy as challenges.
- Laura Brodie, CGO of Ritual, partners with other wellness brands for cross-promotions.
Connected Companies & Entities
1 Entity mapped“Susan Grossman, evp of consumer acquisition and engagement services at Mastercard, provided comment via email.”
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
2026 Holiday Marketing Strategies Guide
Digiday published a Digiday+ Research guide on August 5, 2026, outlining holiday marketing strategies advertisers are planning for the 2026 season. Based on proprietary data from publisher, agency, brand and tech insiders, the report says advertisers are focusing on personalized offers, loyalty programs, bundled products and AI-powered shopping experiences as consumers remain price-sensitive amid economic uncertainty. The guide calls out examples including A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual and is framed as member-exclusive research available to Digiday+ subscribers.
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
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