Observed Signal · Mar 30, 2026 · Analysis · Source: AdExchanger · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Incrementality and Ghost Ads Tackle Retail Media Measurement
Retail media spend and networks are rapidly expanding, but measurement remains fragmented and often relies on attribution models that can over-credit ads for sales that would have occurred anyway. The article argues that incrementality — experiment-based measurement of causal lift — is the right approach to determine true advertising impact. Ghost ads, a method that preserves auction dynamics by serving neutral placeholders to control groups, are highlighted as an effective way to create valid controls in retail media. DoorDash is named as an early adopter of ghost ads in retail lift studies; the article reports a 92% reduction in experimentation dilution and a 35% improvement in ROAS confidence intervals after implementing ghost ads. Wider adoption of incrementality approaches could improve budget allocation, platform accountability, and trust across the retail media ecosystem.
Measurement credibility in retail media affects budget allocation and platform accountability; methodology advances (ghost ads, incrementality) and DoorDash pilot results could influence measurement standards across retail media.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Retail media spend is growing and multiple new retail media networks have launched.
- Most retail media measurement still relies heavily on attribution models that may credit ads for purchases that would have happened without advertising.
- Incrementality measures the causal impact of advertising by comparing outcomes between exposed and control groups (lift-based measurement).
- Ghost ads preserve auction dynamics by showing a neutral placeholder to the control group rather than removing them from auctions.
- DoorDash implemented ghost ads in retail media lift studies and observed a 92% reduction in experimentation dilution and a 35% improvement in ROAS confidence intervals.
Connected Companies & Entities
2 Entities mappedOntology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Retail Media Must Prove Incrementality for Broader Budgets
Retail media is maturing beyond its role as a performance channel for capturing existing demand. At Ascendant Network's inaugural SHOWCASE upfront, the industry discussed the need for retail media to create demand, not just capture it. Key themes included the shift from closed-loop attribution to incrementality measurement, and the need for standardized metrics across commerce media networks to allow advertisers to compare performance. DoorDash Ads highlighted a partnership with Circana showing that 56% of its buyers were net-new customers for a major beverage brand. DoorDash also earned certification from the Alliance for Audited Media for its incrementality measurement, underscoring the push for independent validation and accountability to compete for broader marketing budgets.
Brands Ignore Measurement; Incrementality Solves Attribution
Trevor Testwuide, CEO and co-founder of Measured, published a sponsored op-ed arguing that modern platform-reported attribution (last-touch and platform claims) systematically misallocates marketing budgets. The piece recommends incrementality testing—using exposed vs. matched control groups (holdout tests)—to measure true causal lift and avoid paying repeatedly for demand a brand already had. It notes that retail media networks, social commerce, AI-driven discovery, and marketplaces exacerbate attribution errors, and explains that adopting incrementality requires organizational changes (incentives, agency pushback, revised KPIs) but yields clearer budget allocation and growth-focused investment. The article was published on Modern Retail and sponsored by Measured on 2026-07-02.
Legacy Measurement Sabotaging Retail Media Growth
The IAB blog argues that traditional Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) is increasingly insufficient for measuring retail/commerce media. With retail media networks (RMNs) providing deterministic, SKU- and transaction-level data, closed-loop reporting and incrementality testing, MMM’s reliance on aggregated historical inputs and spend variation can under-credit retail media and misinform budget allocation. The post explains structural mismatches—always-on activation, CPC/CPA and auction dynamics, and fragmented commerce signals across channels—that cause MMM to undervalue retail media. IAB recommends repositioning MMM for long‑horizon planning while using closed‑loop, causal measurement (randomized experiments, geographic lift tests, platform-level reporting) as the primary basis for retail media investment decisions. The article references IAB’s 'Guidelines for Incremental Measurement in Commerce Media' and quotes industry practitioners urging adoption of best practices to accurately capture retail media’s incremental sales impact.
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