Observed Signal · Oct 19, 2026 · Research Report · Source: Modern Retail · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Deloitte: 28% of Holiday Budgets Spent by End of October
Retail forecasts for the holiday season present a mixed outlook. While Deloitte's survey shows shoppers are planning to start earlier, with 28% of budgets spent by end of October and 42% planning to participate in October sales events, other forecasts vary. Circana expects spending to range from -1% to +2.5%, with budgets averaging $779, down from $796. Simon-Kucher projects a 5.5% decline with budgets at $1,018. In contrast, Deloitte and the National Retail Federation forecast growth of 4% and 4.2%, respectively. Consumer behavior is shifting toward value-seeking, as 77% say inflation changed their shopping, and only 22% trust advertised discounts. This is reflected in the 38% 'holiday value seekers' who are research-heavy, switch brands, and use loyalty programs, spending 12% more. Retailers must adapt to a longer season, ensuring early inventory and clear value communication.
While the survey provides insights into holiday consumer behavior, it is not directly related to ad tech, martech, or advertising strategy. It focuses on retail supply chain and consumer spending patterns, which are only tangentially relevant to the advertising industry.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Deloitte's survey: 28% of holiday budgets expected spent by end of October, highest in six years; 42% plan to participate in October sales events.
- Circana predicts holiday spending to range from -1% to +2.5%, with average budgets at $779 vs. $796.
- Simon-Kucher projects a 5.5% decline in holiday spending, with average budgets at $1,018.
- Deloitte expects average household holiday spending to increase 4% to $1,654.
- 77% of consumers say inflation changed shopping behaviors; only 22% trust advertised discounts; 38% are 'holiday value seekers' spending 12% more.
Connected Companies & Entities
4 Entities mapped“According to the consulting firm's annual holiday shopping survey, 22% of respondents plan to start their holiday shopping earlier than last...”
“Circana data expects holiday spend to range from a 1% decline to a 2.5% increase.”
“Bain & Company research suggests retail spend will increase for the holidays.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
New Adtaxi Survey Finds 77% of Consumers Will Maintain or Increase Holiday Spending as Shoppers Start Earlier, Seek Value and Go Mobile-First
New Adtaxi survey reveals 77% of consumers will maintain or increase holiday spending, with shoppers starting earlier, seeking value, and going mobile-first.
Advertisers Shift Holiday Campaigns Earlier (Holiday Creep)
Advertisers are advancing holiday marketing into early fall — a trend dubbed “holiday creep” — to reach financially strained consumers who begin shopping earlier to spread costs. A Simpli.fi report cited by State of Streaming shows a roughly 24-fold spike in early holiday ad spending versus prior peaks. Brands are reallocating existing budgets to run awareness on channels like TV and YouTube in September and October while reserving conversion-focused spend (especially search) for November. The move is accelerating adoption of Connected TV (CTV) and shoppable ad formats (QR-driven creatives), with direct-response interactions up more than 50% year-over-year. Despite weak consumer sentiment surveys, overall ad-market projections for 2025 were revised upward to about $1.17 trillion, reflecting resilient ad demand across channels.
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