Observed Signal · Mar 23, 2026 · Legislation · Source: techcrunch · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Bipartisan Bill Targets Sports Betting on Kalshi, Polymarket
Senators Adam Schiff (D‑CA) and John Curtis (R‑UT) introduced bipartisan legislation that would bar prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket from permitting wagers on sports events or casino‑style games. The bill excludes state‑regulated sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings. Schiff and Curtis argue prediction contracts function as sports bets despite being federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi recently reported dramatic growth — its Super Bowl trading volume topped $1 billion (a ~2700% year‑over‑year increase) — and the company faces recent legal issues including a temporary ban in Nevada and criminal charges in Arizona. Both Kalshi and Polymarket announced new screening and rule changes to limit insider trading and manipulation; Kalshi warned the bill could push users to offshore markets.
The bill could reshape regulatory oversight for federally regulated prediction markets and affect competition and compliance for platforms that offer wager‑like products; however, it is targeted to specific prediction‑market platforms and not a broad, industry‑shifting policy from a major ad/tech platform.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- U.S. Senators Adam Schiff (D‑CA) and John Curtis (R‑UT) introduced a bipartisan bill to prevent prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket from allowing sports betting and casino‑style games.
- The proposed bill would not apply to state‑regulated sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), placing them under federal jurisdiction rather than state gambling laws.
- Kalshi reported Super Bowl trading volume over $1 billion this year, a roughly 2700% year‑over‑year increase.
- Kalshi is temporarily banned in Nevada and faces criminal charges in Arizona; both Kalshi and Polymarket announced new screening/rule updates to limit insider trading and manipulation.
Connected Companies & Entities
2 Entities mappedRelated Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Appeals Court Rules States Can Regulate Sports Prediction Markets
The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate sports-related event contracts on prediction market platforms, dealing a second major legal defeat for the industry. The court held that Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and that state gambling laws are not preempted. This decision aligns with a previous 9th Circuit ruling, while a 3rd Circuit ruling favored CFTC jurisdiction. The legal battle over regulatory authority is expected to reach the Supreme Court, which may soon decide whether to hear an appeal from New Jersey.
Novig Sports Betting Exchange Quadruples Valuation to $2B
Novig, a New York-based sports betting exchange startup, is set to quadruple its valuation to approximately $2 billion in a new funding round expected to close by winter, as reported by Front Office Sports. Founded in 2021, Novig operates a prediction market where users trade contracts on sports outcomes, generating revenue through fees. In February, the company raised $75 million at a $500 million valuation. Novig received CFTC approval in June, enabling operations across all 50 US states, and has seen over $5 billion traded on its platform. Despite this growth, Novig remains smaller than competitors Kalshi ($40B valuation) and Polymarket ($21B). However, regulatory challenges loom, as New York has sued those competitors for alleged illegal gambling, and Spain has temporarily blocked them, with the EU's ESMA warning that such contracts may fall under the binary options ban. Novig's future depends on whether its federal approval shields it from state lawsuits.
Agentic Commerce Optimism Tempered by Early-Stage Concerns
At Newcomer's Machine Earning AI Summit in San Francisco, industry leaders discussed the rapid rise of personal AI agents in finance and commerce. Enthusiasm for agentic commerce is high but tempered by recognition that consumer trust and infrastructure are still developing. Discussions covered the competitive agent landscape (OpenAI's Dots, Instinct, Muse, Grok Bot), the need for transaction guardrails ('spend pockets', policy engines), and legal liability for rogue agent actions. Financial executives shared successes in using AI for CFO tasks, and companies like Airwallex launched agentic business accounts. Surveys indicated bullishness on fintech stocks like Stripe and Ramp, while prediction markets face regulatory headwinds. The consensus is that while technology advances, humans will remain in the loop for approvals, and the full potential of agentic commerce is years away.
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