Observed Signal · Mar 4, 2026 · Market Analysis · Source: AdExchanger · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Amazon Gains in CTV; The Trade Desk Loses Lead
Connected TV (CTV) spend is growing rapidly, but market share dynamics are shifting: The Trade Desk (TTD) has seen accelerating deceleration in growth since 2024 while Amazon’s ad business has continued to outpace the market. The article links TTD’s slowdown to buyer pushback against opaque fee structures and algorithmic steering tied to its OpenPath product, which in late 2024 began carrying a 4.5% publisher fee plus embedded Predictive Clearing bid‑shading and other add-on charges. Amazon has leaned on DSP improvements, deeper CTV partnerships (Roku, Disney), and first‑party audiences across Prime Video and Fire TV, reporting 23% year‑over‑year ad revenue growth in Q4 2025 versus TTD’s 14% in the same period. Agencies including WPP and Dentsu have exited OpenPath over economic and transparency concerns. The piece argues that commoditized transparency and buyer tools are shifting CTV economics and buyer preferences.
Analysis highlights shifting CTV market share between major players (Amazon and The Trade Desk), cites recent quarter growth and guidance, and describes structural changes (fees, algorithmic steering, agency exits) that materially affect programmatic CTV economics and buyer behavior.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- CTV advertising grew 13% in 2025 to $26.6 billion and is projected to reach $51 billion by 2029.
- Amazon reported 23% year‑over‑year advertising revenue growth in Q4 2025.
- The Trade Desk reported 14% growth in Q4 2025 and guided to ~10% growth for Q1 2026.
- In late 2024 The Trade Desk added a 4.5% publisher fee to OpenPath impressions and embeds Predictive Clearing bid‑shading fees into CPMs.
- WPP and Dentsu exited The Trade Desk’s OpenPath supply over concerns about economics and opacity.
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Related Market Signals & Shifts
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Amazon Surges in CTV as Trade Desk Struggles
The article analyzes a competitive shift in connected-TV (CTV) advertising: CTV is growing (13% in 2025 to $26.6B, projected $51B by 2029) while The Trade Desk (TTD) has shown sustained deceleration in growth. Amazon’s ad business has outpaced TTD — reporting 23% year‑over‑year ad revenue growth in Q4 2025 — helped by DSP improvements, deeper CTV partnerships (Roku, Disney), and first‑party audiences across Prime Video and Fire TV. TTD’s recent product and fee changes (OpenPath publisher fee, Predictive Clearing bid‑shading, AI-driven Performance Mode) have raised buyer concerns about opaque fees and algorithmic steering; WPP and Dentsu exited OpenPath. The piece argues increased transparency and buyer tools are collapsing information asymmetry, shifting buy‑side priorities and favoring platforms that combine scale with clearer economics.
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