Observed Signal · Jan 6, 2026 · Funding · Source: VideoWeek · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
AI Drives MMM Funding; Meta Dominates Social Spend
This week's VideoWeek Week in Charts highlights AI-driven investment in Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) startups, with about 4.4 million dollars invested globally in the first nine months of 2025, spurred by real-time measurement platforms following ChatGPT's launch. Meta captured roughly 80% of social media ad spend in 2025, and forecasts show Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon together claiming around 56.1% of all global ad spend (excluding China) in 2025, rising to about 58% in 2026. The piece examines the potential offset of linear TV declines by growing Connected TV (CTV) revenues, with linear down about 7% YoY while US CTV grows ~16% YoY, though growth may decelerate after 2027. Short-form video is linked to higher conversions, cited by a 52% response rate from brand executives in a Rithum survey. The column also touches stock moves (e.g., S4 Capital rally; Canal+/HBO Max deal with WBD) and broader ad-tech trends such as AI, programmatic buying, and measurement across platforms.
Significant industry trend: AI investment in MMM startups and dominance of Meta in social spend; growth in short-form video
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- AI MMM startups received $4.4 million in global investment during the first nine months of 2025.
- Meta captured 80 percent of social media ad spend in 2025.
- US linear TV ad revenues forecast to decline ~7% YoY for the next two years; US CTV ad revenues expected to rise ~16% YoY.
- 52% of brand executives report short-form video drives conversions.
- Canal+ signed a multi-year distribution deal with Warner Bros. Discovery to distribute HBO Max in several European markets.
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Related Market Signals & Shifts
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Digital Video to Capture 61% of US TV/Video Spend
VideoWeek’s Week in Charts summarizes multiple industry reports showing a continued structural shift toward digital video and rising AI use in video production. IAB projects digital video will account for 61% of US TV/video ad spend in 2026, up but growing more slowly than last year. iSpot research finds streaming partners are sharing more reach and frequency and demographic data but offer less visibility on attribution, programming and linear/streaming overlap. EMARKETER and Admazing report over 70% of US marketers rarely consider mobile gaming a core channel despite many seeing incremental reach potential. Wistia data shows increasing adoption of generative AI for video—69% using AI captions, 39% AI visuals and 25% AI avatars (2025 vs 2024). The piece also highlights sector stock moves, including LiveRamp/ Publicis M&A news and Nexxen revenue-driven gains.
CTV & AI Growth; Video to Counter AI Threat
Week in Charts flags CTV and AI as the main growth areas in IAB Europe’s Attitudes to Digital Advertising, with agencies (76%), publishers (54%), and ad tech (81%) naming CTV and 60% of advertisers citing AI as growth drivers. Reuters Institute notes publishers will focus more on video in the AI era, citing declines in traffic referrals from AI search results. Ampere Analysis forecasts global content investment reaching $255 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025, led by streaming with spend rising 6% to $101 billion while broadcasters stagnate or decline. CoComelon tops end-of-year video streams, led by The Wheels on the Bus, with Bruno Mars songs in second and third and Golden from Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters in fourth. The Week in Stocks section highlights movements in Roku, The New York Times, and Adobe, and the piece weaves in signals around AI, M&A, pricing, and measurement shaping the ad tech and video ecosystem.
AI Spurs AdTech Alliances; Social Video Outgrows CTV
AdExchanger’s roundup highlights how agentic AI is driving unexpected partnerships across the ad-tech stack — from The Trade Desk embedding its DSP through Pacvue and Skai to Yahoo integrating its DSP workspace into Kochava’s StationOne — enabling shared agentic workflows and reducing duplicated tooling. The IAB projects U.S. digital video ad spend will surpass $80 billion in 2026, with social video ad spend growing ~13% year-over-year versus an ~11% gain for CTV, driven by AI personalization and clearer performance attribution on social platforms (YouTube is classified as social video alongside Instagram and Reddit). The piece also notes over 1,200 consumer-facing ChatGPT/Claude integrations with major brands, but early adoption is low due to discoverability constraints. Additional items: FTC/Media Matters settlement, Meta’s use of “AI bone structure analysis,” Viant’s close of TVision acquisition, and several industry hires including NextRoll’s new CTO.
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