Observed Signal · Sep 22, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: https://martechseries.com/feed/ · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
AdRoll reports 45% drop in prospecting CPMs
AdRoll released its Q3 2026 State of Digital Advertising Report, showing a 45% year-over-year decline in display prospecting CPMs from July 1 to Sept. 8, offering a lower-cost window for holiday marketers before prices typically rise. Display retargeting CPMs fell 29.1% year over year, with a 40.2% drop from Q2. Account-based marketing CPMs increased 4.4% year over year but declined 15.1% from Q2. The report also indicates that despite lower ad prices, consumer spending remains steady, with a 4.5% increase in card spending per household. AdRoll CEO Vibhor Kapoor advises marketers to reallocate budgets based on full-funnel performance. The report includes insights from a study with eTail on retargeting challenges, highlighting that only 13% of retailers successfully bring back over 20% of cart abandoners, and underscores the importance of first-party signals in tailoring messaging.
Provides market pricing insights and strategic guidance for holiday campaigns, but is not a major product or platform change.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- AdRoll's Q3 2026 report shows display prospecting CPMs dropped 45% year over year.
- Display retargeting CPMs declined 29.1% year over year and 40.2% from Q2.
- ABM CPMs increased 4.4% year over year but fell 15.1% from Q2.
- U.S. inflation held at 3.4% in August, with card spending up 4.5% year over year.
- Only 13% of senior retail leaders reported recovering more than 20% of cart abandoners.
Connected Companies & Entities
1 Entity mapped“AdRoll, an AI-powered multichannel advertising platform, today released the Q3 2026 edition of its State of Digital Advertising Report....”
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Publisher ad supply fell up to 40% in Q2 2026
Benchmarking data from Ozone, shared with Digiday, shows publisher ad request volumes fell sharply in Q2 2026 as AI-driven, zero-click search and changing discovery patterns reduced referral traffic to open-web sites. Ozone tracked roughly 20 billion impressions and reported ad-request volumes down about 32–37% YoY in the U.S. and 39–41% YoY in the U.K. Despite lower inventory, average eCPMs rose (about 30% YoY in the U.K. and 7% YoY in the U.S. in June), so spend fell less dramatically in some markets; combined programmatic spend across Ozone’s U.S. and U.K. cohort was down 30.6% YoY in H1 2026. The report highlights channel divergence (apps grew), big declines in outstream video, DSP-level variance, and argues the trend represents a structural shift toward walled gardens, subscriptions and logged-in products.
OpenAI's Measurement Gaps Keep ChatGPT Ads Budgets at Test Level
Seven months after OpenAI introduced ads in ChatGPT, marketers still face measurement hurdles, as agencies like Accuracast report discrepancies—zero conversions despite form fills and 100 clicks vs. 20 tracked internally—along with 24-36 hour delays and a lack of demographic or prompt data. Legal concerns about OpenAI's terms and data use deter many from enabling conversion tracking, slowing custom audience adoption. Test budgets range from £10,000 to £30,000, with clients spending under $100,000 monthly on ChatGPT versus $10 million on Google. Third-party measurement through partners like AppsFlyer and Adjust is deemed essential, though limited. Meanwhile, DoorDash expands retail media by partnering with Macy's, Timberland, and others, the Trump administration spends millions on pro-Trump ads, Swap Commerce acquires Vizby, and OpenX hires John Rogers as SVP of Global Publisher Development. OpenAI declined to comment.
ShopMy, Google, WordPress Among Digiday Technology Awards Finalists
The Digiday Technology Awards has announced its 2026 finalists, showcasing the industry's focus on AI-ready infrastructure, first-party data, privacy, and operational efficiency. Notable finalists include WordPress VIP for Best CMS, recognized for its partnership with Pew Research Center to make content AI-discoverable, and ShopMy for Best E-Commerce Technology, highlighting creator-led commerce. Google is a finalist for Best Sell-Side Programmatic Platform for its work with The Guardian on privacy-compliant monetization. The awards feature numerous categories covering AI, programmatic, data, and more, reflecting a shift from adaptation to reinvention in digital media and commerce.
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