Observed Signal · Nov 5, 2026 · Analysis · Source: ExchangeWire · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
11.11 Sales Mostly Not Incremental, Flywheel Says
Ahead of Singles Day (11.11) in Southeast Asia, analysis from e-commerce agency Flywheel and media agency Brainlabs indicates that only 15-20% of the sales uplift is incremental, with most demand occurring regardless. Media costs rise significantly, with Shopee costs increasing 17-25%, TikTok around 15%, and Lazada 10-15%, starting as early as November 1-3. Brands are advised to build audiences beforehand via off-site channels like Meta and Google, rather than spending heavily on the day itself. The analysts emphasize measuring performance against a baseline over a wider period, focusing on new-to-brand buyers, basket size, and repeat purchases, rather than relying on GMV spikes that may mask flat quarterly sales.
Provides data-driven insights into the effectiveness and cost dynamics of major e-commerce sales events in Southeast Asia, relevant for advertisers and agencies planning Q4 campaigns.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Flywheel estimates only 15-20% of the 11.11 sales uplift is incremental.
- Marketplace media costs increase: Shopee +17-25%, TikTok +15%, Lazada +10-15%.
- Media pricing starts climbing from November 1-3 and stays high until after November 13.
- Brainlabs cannot isolate an 11.11-specific effect in biddable channels.
- Analysts recommend building audiences before the sale via off-site channels.
Connected Companies & Entities
6 Entities mapped“Flywheel's analysis suggests the incremental share of the 11.11 sales uplift is around 15–20%.”
“Penelope Siraj, senior partner at Brainlabs, says her team can't isolate a double-day effect in biddable channels.”
“TikTok Shop shows how quickly this can happen in taking share from established marketplaces.”
“Brands scale prospecting through off-site channels such as Meta and Google.”
“Brands scale prospecting through off-site channels such as Meta and Google.”
“Brands scale prospecting through off-site channels such as Meta and Google.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
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