Bain & Company vs Bain Capital Ventures

Bain's Likelihood to Buy Metric Highlights Brand Trust in B2B

An opinion piece by Cos Mingides discusses Bain & Company's new Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing. Bain's research indicates that about 90% of B2B buyers ultimately purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that immediately come to mind when the buying process begins. True's 'Rule of Three' research adds that buyers typically have no more than three brands on that initial shortlist. Bain's findings suggest that B2B buying is less about formal evaluation and more about elimination of brands not already known or trusted. Being 'better' is not enough; brands must have pre-existing familiarity, trust, and confidence across the entire buying committee, including 'hidden buyers' in procurement, finance, legal, and operations. The article argues that brand activities should be measured by their impact on the likelihood of being chosen, not just awareness.

• Bain & Company has introduced a Likelihood to Buy (LTB) metric for B2B marketing.
• Bain research suggests around 90% of B2B buyers purchase from a 'Day 1 list' of vendors that come to mind at the start of the buying process.
• True's research, 'The Rule of Three in Every Purchase Decision', indicates that B2B buyers typically have no more than three brands on their initial shortlist.

E-commerce to Outpace Holiday Retail Sales Growth with AI

A Deloitte forecast predicts e-commerce sales will outpace overall retail growth during the 2026 holiday season (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027). Total holiday retail sales are expected to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion, while e-commerce is projected to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion, aided by consumers' growing use of AI tools for shopping research. A Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start product discovery using AI tools like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up 17% from 2025. Increased disposable personal income, projected to grow 4.5-5.2%, is also a factor. Retailers who stocked up early in anticipation of tariff changes may benefit from a strong season.

• Deloitte forecasts total holiday retail sales to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion.
• E-commerce sales are forecast to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion in the 2026 holiday season.
• Bain & Company reports 24% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools for product discovery, up 17% from 2025.

Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026

Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.

• Bain & Company forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 4.5% YoY, exceeding $1 trillion.
• Inflation will account for over half of the nominal sales increase.
• Online sales expected to rise 9% YoY; in-store sales up 2.5%.

Corridor Raises $25M Seed for AI Health Benefits Brokerage

Corridor, an AI-powered health benefits brokerage for small businesses, announced a $25 million seed round led by Bain Capital Ventures. The startup combines human advisors with AI agents that handle administrative tasks like checking in-network doctors, scheduling care, and updating insurance info. Founded by Jackson Wagner (ex-Scale AI) and Eric Qian, with CEO Nikhil Aggarwal, the company aims to address the underserved SMB market. Investors include BoxGroup and executives from OpenAI, Scale AI, and Ramp. Corridor is preparing for Q4, when most small businesses choose their health plans.

• Corridor raised a $25 million seed round led by Bain Capital Ventures.
• The company was founded by Jackson Wagner, Eric Qian, Nikhil Aggarwal, and Jason Dong.
• Corridor uses AI agents to handle administrative tasks for health benefits brokerage.

Bain Capital Ventures Raises $1.6B Fund for Post-AGI Era Startups

Bain Capital Ventures (BCV) has raised a new $1.6 billion fund, 14% larger than its previous $1.4 billion fund from three years ago. The firm plans to deploy the capital primarily into startups focused on AI, particularly in infrastructure, healthcare, physical AI, and security, which it calls the 'post-AGI era.' BCV aims to fund compute infrastructure until AI becomes 'too cheap to meter,' and cites portfolio company Crusoe, a data center developer valued at $30 billion and a near-term IPO candidate. The firm also highlights investments in Loyal, a pet longevity startup, and Dream, an AI-powered national infrastructure defender. BCV intends to invest in 30 to 40 companies, primarily at seed through Series B stages, leveraging Bain Capital's expertise in credit, real estate, insurance, and private equity to support founders with more than just equity capital.

• Bain Capital Ventures raised a new $1.6 billion fund, 14% larger than its previous $1.4 billion fund.
• The fund is the firm's 11th and will focus on AI startups in infrastructure, healthcare, physical AI, and security.
• BCV plans to invest in 30 to 40 companies, primarily at seed through Series B stages.

Capital’s Duty to the Future

We’re pleased to announce that we’ve raised $1.6B of total capital for Bain Capital Ventures’ Fund XI.