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Lead DevelopmentFACT · 4/5•10 Sept '26•Via Retail Dive

E-commerce to Outpace Holiday Retail Sales Growth with AI

A Deloitte forecast predicts e-commerce sales will outpace overall retail growth during the 2026 holiday season (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027). Total holiday retail sales are expected to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion, while e-commerce is projected to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion, aided by consumers' growing use of AI tools for shopping research. A Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start product discovery using AI tools like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up 17% from 2025. Increased disposable personal income, projected to grow 4.5-5.2%, is also a factor. Retailers who stocked up early in anticipation of tariff changes may benefit from a strong season.

•Deloitte forecasts total holiday retail sales to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion.
•E-commerce sales are forecast to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion in the 2026 holiday season.
•Bain & Company reports 24% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools for product discovery, up 17% from 2025.

Entities:Deloitte Bain & Company

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