Observed Signal · Mar 18, 2026 · Financials · Source: Newcomer · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Positive
UTIMCO Shows Massive VC IRRs Driven by AI Bets
UTIMCO's latest disclosures through November 30, 2025 reveal extreme concentration of recent venture returns driven by early-stage stakes in leading AI companies. Thrive Capital’s 2022 Fund VIII is showing an IRR of roughly 126%, attributed to early investments in OpenAI, Cursor and Base Power, while some Thrive funds and a 2024 venture fund show divergent performance. Notable Capital (still recorded as GGV Capital) saw a core 2023 fund IRR swing from -48% to about 96%, driven largely by Anthropic and Fal. Sequoia’s 2020–2021 vintages have improved, whereas HongShan and Peak XV vintages lag. The article cautions these IRRs are mainly markups on private valuations (paper gains) and could change if market conditions reverse.
UTIMCO is a large institutional LP; its disclosed fund-level IRRs signal where VC returns have concentrated (notably AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic), affecting LP allocation decisions, VC fundraising dynamics and perceptions of concentration/risk in the venture market.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- UTIMCO disclosed venture return data through November 30, 2025.
- Thrive Capital’s 2022 Fund VIII reported an IRR of ~126% per UTIMCO disclosures.
- Notable Capital (recorded at UTIMCO as GGV Capital) saw a 2023 core fund IRR rise from -48% to 96% in one year.
- Top-performing recent funds’ gains are attributed mainly to investments in OpenAI and Anthropic.
- Sequoia Capital’s 2021 Seed fund IRR rose from just over 6% to 11.3% in the latest UTIMCO report.
Connected Companies & Entities
7 Entities mappedRelated Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Venture Capital Concentrates Heavily in AI
Analysis of U.S. venture capital activity in early 2026 finds unprecedented concentration in AI: 86% of U.S. VC spending in H1 2026 went to AI companies, with just two firms (OpenAI and Anthropic) receiving 53% of venture dollars. Mega rounds over $100 million accounted for nearly 88% of deployed capital in H1 2026 while smaller rounds drew only 12.5%. Funding for non-AI sectors (biotech, fintech, healthtech, cybersecurity) has fallen roughly in half since 2021. Capital is also concentrating at the fund level: the 10 largest venture funds captured 43% of capital committed in 2025, and the three largest brand-name firms captured 48% of commitments in H1 2026. The piece warns this top-heavy allocation raises systemic risk for innovation and public-market pipeline diversity.
IVP Seeks $1.8B Fund, Reports 31.1% Net IRR
Institutional Venture Partners (IVP) is raising $1.8 billion for its 19th flagship fund and tells prospective limited partners it has generated a 31.1% net internal rate of return since its 1980 founding. Fund documents reviewed by Newcomer show IVP is seeking premium economics — 2% management fee in year one, 2.25% thereafter, 25% carry stepping to 30% after a 2.5x hurdle, and a 3% GP commitment. The firm’s historical performance includes a 1996 fund that returned 6.7x net DPI (94.5% IRR); more recent vintages range from 1.2x net TVPI (2024) to 2.0x DPI (2015 vintage, 22.7% IRR). IVP highlights investments such as Perplexity, Baseten, ClickHouse, Chainguard, and Abridge, notes a major but not largest Anthropic stake, and appears to have missed OpenAI and SpaceX.
AI Startups Dominate Venture Funding, Early Returns Strong
Carta data summarized by TechCrunch shows AI startups captured a record share of venture funding, accounting for 41% of the $128 billion raised by companies on Carta last year. Funding has concentrated: 10% of startups received half of the capital. Large AI companies cited include Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI, which raised multi‑billion-dollar rounds (xAI $20B Series E in January; OpenAI $110B round in February; Anthropic $30B Series G at a $380B valuation). Carta’s analysis finds funds raised in 2023–2024 have posted higher internal rates of return (IRR) than funds from 2017–2020, reflecting strong early paper returns for investors backing AI-native startups. Carta’s Peter Walker cautions that short-term IRR can be inflated by rapid re‑valuations. The piece notes the market is bifurcated, with capital concentrated in a small number of winners.
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