Observed Signal · Jul 31, 2026 · Report Release · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Negative
NRF: Shoplifting Stabilizes, Online Gift-Card Fraud Grows
The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that shoplifting incidents have stabilized and fallen for the first time in several years, a trend the NRF attributes to retailers’ investments in store hardening, technology and staff training. Meanwhile, loss-prevention specialists at over 60 major retailers cite increases in phone scams, e-commerce/digital fraud, and gift-card and return fraud; the report also highlights supply-chain vulnerabilities such as cargo theft. The NRF surveyed senior loss prevention and security executives at 66 retailers (143 brands) from February to April 2026. The article notes the NRF no longer publishes an annual shrink report (stopped in 2024) and references other research showing shoplifting rises in some U.S. cities. The U.S. House passed anti-organized retail crime legislation earlier in 2026, an NRF lobbying priority.
Findings indicate a shift of retail crime toward digital channels (phone, e-commerce, gift-card fraud) and highlight supply-chain risks; important for retailers' loss-prevention, e-commerce, payments and logistics teams but not industry-shifting.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- The NRF surveyed senior loss prevention and security executives from February to April 2026 across 66 retailers representing 143 brands.
- According to the NRF, the average number of shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents fell for the first time in several years.
- Loss prevention specialists reported increases in phone scams, e-commerce/digital fraud, and theft/fraud related to gift cards and returns.
- The NRF highlighted supply-chain vulnerabilities such as cargo theft in addition to in-store theft.
- The NRF discontinued its annual shrink report in 2024 and did not provide theft- or fraud-related loss estimates in this report.
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