Observed Signal · Oct 19, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: Retail Dive · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday sales growth, muted seasonal hiring
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday retail sales to grow 4.2% year-over-year to roughly $1 trillion during November and December 2026. The trade group believes nearly half of the nominal growth will come from real consumer spending, despite inflationary pressures such as higher diesel and memory prices. Seasonal hiring is expected to be muted, with retailers adding between 325,000 and 375,000 workers, reflecting a 'low hire, low fire' labor market. Last year's sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion, missing NRF's earlier forecast. The forecast is based on economic indicators including consumer spending, income, employment, and inflation, excluding categories like gas stations and auto dealers.
NRF forecast provides key retail sales benchmark, but is not directly about adtech or marketing technology.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday sales growth year-over-year to roughly $1 trillion.
- Last year's holiday sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion, missing NRF's predictions.
- Retailers expected to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers.
- NRF defines holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
- Forecast based on economic modeling excluding gas stations, auto dealers, and restaurants.
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Holiday spending forecast to top $1 trillion in 2026
Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. retail sales during November and December will grow 4.5% year over year, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal increase. In-store sales are expected to grow 2.5%, while online sales are projected to rise 9%. A survey of over 1,100 consumers shows that 24% plan to start holiday shopping using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up from 17% last year. Factors such as high gas prices, tariffs, credit card debt, and geopolitical uncertainty may temper spending. Retailers are advised to balance pricing and promotions and leverage AI to enhance customer experience.
Holiday Shoppers Spend More But Buy Less
Holiday sales forecasts predict growth in dollar terms despite consumer surveys indicating reduced spending intentions. Higher prices, resilient gift spending, and faster e-commerce growth explain the apparent contradiction. Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales of $275.1 billion for November and December, up 6.7% year-over-year, while AlixPartners expects overall retail sales growth of 4-7%. Consumer surveys from PwC, Sprout Social, and Omnisend show many shoppers plan to cut spending, trade down, and seek discounts, with some using emergency funds. Gifts for children remain a priority. AI's role in shopping is expanding, with 29% of consumers using AI for holiday shopping, primarily for product research and price comparisons. Adobe forecasts a 130% increase in AI-driven referral traffic to retail sites.
E-commerce to Outpace Holiday Retail Sales Growth with AI
A Deloitte forecast predicts e-commerce sales will outpace overall retail growth during the 2026 holiday season (Nov 2026 – Jan 2027). Total holiday retail sales are expected to grow 4-4.8% year-over-year to $1.7-$1.71 trillion, while e-commerce is projected to grow 7.5-8.4% to $316.1-$318.9 billion, aided by consumers' growing use of AI tools for shopping research. A Bain & Company report found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to start product discovery using AI tools like Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude, up 17% from 2025. Increased disposable personal income, projected to grow 4.5-5.2%, is also a factor. Retailers who stocked up early in anticipation of tariff changes may benefit from a strong season.
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