Observed Signal · Sep 10, 2026 · Market Signal · Source: IAB · Impact: 4/5
IAB Raises 2026 U.S. Ad Spend Forecast to +12.3% YoY Growth, as Strong First Half Lifts Expectations
IAB raises its 2026 U.S. ad spend forecast to +12.3% YoY growth, citing a strong first half. The news page also features new releases including 'Measuring Visibility in the AI Era' and the launch of IAB Global Creator Week.
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IAB Releases 2026 Outlook Study September Update and The Creator Signal Report
The IAB blog features new insights: '2026 Outlook Study: September Update, A Snapshot of U.S. Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth' and 'The Creator Signal: How AI Systems Interpret Influence in Commerce'.
IAB Raises 2026 Ad Forecast; Google Adds AI to Meridian MMM
The IAB raised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth forecast to 12.3%, up from 9.5% in January, citing a stronger-than-expected first half and improved economic clarity. Growth is particularly strong in social media, CTV, and commerce media. Meanwhile, Google announced updates to its open-source MMM tool Meridian, adding a chatbot interface for model building, data quality auditing, and troubleshooting. Meridian's GeoX geotesting feature exited beta, allowing marketers to segment campaigns by geography and incorporate findings into models. Additionally, Meridian now supports upper-funnel signals like branded search volume. Google is also integrating its Data Manager into Google Analytics and DV360 and adopting the IAB Tech Lab's ECAPI standard for interoperability. The roundup also notes Snapchat's new event-planning features, positioning it as a competitor to Partiful, and other industry moves.
US Ad Spend Forecast Revised Upward Amid Rising AI Use
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has revised its 2026 U.S. ad spend growth forecast to 12.3%, up from 9.5%, citing strong spending around major live events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup. Research consultancy Madison & Wall projects global ad spend growth of 11% to over $1.3 trillion. Notably, the share of ad dollars directed through AI or automated campaign types, such as Meta's Advantage+ and Google's Performance Max, is set to rise to 12% of U.S. ad spend ($479 billion excluding political), up from 2% in 2023. By 2030, AI-directed spend is expected to reach $158 billion, or 27% of the U.S. ad market. Media agencies report significant client adoption, with some allocating over 50% of search budgets to Performance Max. Platforms like Google and Meta are driving this shift, with Google's AI Max and Performance Max accounting for 30% of search spend, and Meta's Advantage+ on track for $75 billion in annual revenue.
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