Observed Signal · Sep 22, 2026 · Market Signal · Source: Haus · Impact: 3/5
Can A Model Predict Incrementality?: An Interview with Professor Brett Gordon
Stanford Professor Brett Gordon sat down with Haus' Joe Wyer, Olivia Kory, and Phil Erickson to discuss his influential research around marketing measurement and incrementality.
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Marketers Seek Clean Incrementality Measurements
An ADWEEK House panel co-hosted with Fetch examined the challenges brands face when measuring incremental impact from marketing. Panelists from CAVA, Nestlé, The Hershey Company, Haleon, Digitas and Fetch emphasized that incrementality is contested because consumer behavior is fragmented, teams often claim the same outcomes, and measurement signals from partners can conflict. Speakers argued randomized controlled trials remain the most reliable method but require discipline and time (brands may need six to eight months to see impact). Melissa Berger noted only about 8% of brands have formal incrementality programs. The discussion stressed the need for honest communication between brands and partners, careful experimental design, aligned timelines and realistic expectations about what measurement can prove.
Marketers Lose Trust in Measurement Amid Conflicting Signals
Industry figures Zach Epstein (founder of Haus) and Jon Humphrey (GM of Rokt Ads) tell The Drum that marketing measurement is failing because multiple platforms send overlapping data and claim credit for the same conversions. They argue that more data has produced conflicting signals, outdated budget inputs, and attribution that often reflects correlation rather than causation. The pair promote focusing on higher-quality, intent-confirmed environments (the 'Transaction Moment'), continuous incrementality testing and counterfactuals, and independent, causal data as prerequisites for trustworthy AI-driven marketing decisions. Haus claims its platform provides real-time signatures of incremental events to reduce insight-to-action lag.
Brands Ignore Measurement; Incrementality Solves Attribution
Trevor Testwuide, CEO and co-founder of Measured, published a sponsored op-ed arguing that modern platform-reported attribution (last-touch and platform claims) systematically misallocates marketing budgets. The piece recommends incrementality testing—using exposed vs. matched control groups (holdout tests)—to measure true causal lift and avoid paying repeatedly for demand a brand already had. It notes that retail media networks, social commerce, AI-driven discovery, and marketplaces exacerbate attribution errors, and explains that adopting incrementality requires organizational changes (incentives, agency pushback, revised KPIs) but yields clearer budget allocation and growth-focused investment. The article was published on Modern Retail and sponsored by Measured on 2026-07-02.
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