Observed Signal · Feb 27, 2026 · Market Event · Source: techcrunch · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Negative
Global RAM Shortage to Slash Smartphone Shipments by 12%
Rising RAM demand from AI compute and data centers has triggered a global memory shortage and sharp price increases. Analyst firm IDC forecasts smartphone shipments will fall 12.9% in 2026 to about 1.12 billion units (from 1.26 billion in 2025). Counterpoint issued a similar forecast, projecting a 12% decline and warning low-end segments will be hit hardest. IDC expects average selling prices (ASP) to rise ~14% to a record $523 and predicts regional shipment falls exceeding 20% in the Middle East & Africa, with China and Asia Pacific (ex‑Japan) down ~10.5% and 13.1% respectively. Firms expect LPDDR4 supply constraints, OEM launch delays, spec trade‑offs and second‑hand market growth; IDC forecasts RAM prices stabilizing by mid‑2027.
Wider smartphone shipment declines and higher ASPs can reduce mobile device growth and affect mobile ad inventory and app ecosystems, but impact is indirect rather than an immediate AdTech industry shift.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- IDC predicts smartphone shipments will decline 12.9% in 2026 to ~1.12 billion units (from 1.26 billion in 2025).
- Counterpoint projects a similar ~12% drop in smartphone shipments for 2026.
- IDC expects smartphone average selling price (ASP) to rise ~14% to a record $523 in 2026.
- Regions forecasted to see steep declines include Middle East & Africa (>20% YOY), China (-10.5%) and Asia Pacific excluding Japan (-13.1%).
- Counterpoint and IDC say memory constraints (including shrinking LPDDR4 supply) will hit lower‑end phones hardest; RAM prices are expected to stabilize by mid‑2027.
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Smartphone Shipments Set for Historic Decline Amid RAM Shortage
Analyst firms IDC and Counterpoint predict a sharp decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 driven by a RAM shortage caused by rising demand from AI and data-center infrastructure. IDC forecasts a 12.9% year‑over‑year drop to about 1.12 billion units (from 1.26 billion in 2025), while Counterpoint estimates a 12% decline. The shortage is expected to push average selling prices up (IDC projects a 14% increase to a record $523), disproportionately harming low‑end and sub‑$200 segments, accelerating vendor consolidation, and boosting secondary handset markets. IDC expects RAM prices to stabilize by mid‑2027. Regional impacts include declines of more than 20% in the Middle East & Africa, ~10.5% in China, and ~13.1% in broader Asia Pacific (ex‑Japan).
Smartphone Shipments Set for Historic Decline in 2026
Analysts warn the global smartphone market faces its steepest decline on record in 2026 driven largely by a worsening memory-chip shortage. Counterpoint Research projects a 12% year‑on‑year drop in smartphone shipments for 2026, with volumes falling to their lowest annual level since 2013. The International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates memory constraints could shrink the global PC and smartphone markets by about 11% and 13%, respectively. The shortage is being exacerbated as AI hyperscalers (cloud providers investing in large data centers) prioritize purchases of RAM and other memory, pushing up component prices and deprioritizing allocation to device makers. Analysts expect longer replacement cycles, higher device prices, growth in secondary/used markets, and a potential inflection only when new memory capacity comes online—possibly in late 2027.
Memory Chip Price Spike Hits Electronics Retailers
Apple has increased prices for many Mac computers and some iPad models by roughly €100 or more, a move the company had foreshadowed in mid-June. CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that price hikes were "unavoidable" because the rapid build‑out of AI data centers has driven unprecedented demand for memory chips, pushing component costs sharply higher. The MacBook Air with M5 processor is listed by Apple at €1,399 (previously €1,199), though some online retailers still sell earlier stocks at lower prices. iPhones were not part of the current adjustments, but analysts and outlets (MacRumors, TechCrunch) have suggested future iPhone models — e.g., iPhone 18 Pro — could face sizable upsells if costs persist. The article frames the increases as industry‑wide, with other hardware makers (Sony, Microsoft, Nothing) also affected by the memory/SSD shortage.
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