Observed Signal · Jul 9, 2026 · Research Forecast · Source: Hello Partner · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Agentic Commerce Users Could Reach 1.3 Billion by 2031
Juniper Research forecasts that agentic commerce users could grow from under 300 million in 2026 to about 1.3 billion by 2031, a near 350% rise. The report also projects agentic commerce transaction value will increase from roughly $8 billion in 2026 to $3.5 trillion by 2031. Juniper attributes the growth to retailer support, expanding agentic payment infrastructure and rising consumer comfort with AI, while noting current user familiarity and trust remain low. Separate research from Checkout.com found 24% of consumers say they will never delegate purchases to AI and 27% trust no organisation to operate an AI shopping agent. The article highlights payments as a structural concern — cards lead today but tokenisation and local-payment support will be important — and notes recent industry moves including OpenAI’s pullback from in‑app purchasing and Google’s new Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) features.
A large projected expansion of agentic commerce and transaction value could materially reshape e-commerce, retail media, affiliate/performance channels and payment orchestration—creating new ad inventory and measurement challenges—though adoption risks remain due to low consumer trust and payment infrastructure constraints.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Juniper Research projects agentic commerce users could reach 1.3 billion globally by 2031, up from less than 300 million in 2026.
- Juniper Research forecasts agentic commerce transaction value will grow to $3.5 trillion by 2031, from about $8 billion in 2026.
- Checkout.com research (June) found 24% of consumers say they will never delegate purchases to AI, and 27% said they trust 'no organisation' to operate an AI shopping agent.
- Juniper Research’s Nick Maynard said cards increasingly support agent payments through tokenisation but card domination is not in the market’s best interests; failure to support local payments would limit growth.
- OpenAI pulled back from its in‑app purchasing plans in March; Google has recently released new features for its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP).
Connected Companies & Entities
3 Entities mapped“Research from digital payments company Checkout.com in June identified a consumer trust gap, with 24% of consumers claiming they will never ...”
“Back in March, OpenAI pulled back from its in-app purchasing plans....”
“Google recently released new features for its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
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Agentic Commerce: Hype, Standards and Platform Push
The article analyzes 'Agentic Commerce'—autonomous AI agents that search, compare and complete purchases for users—and assesses its commercial potential. It cites forecasts (McKinsey: up to $5 trillion B2C by 2030) and current commercial experiments from major tech and payments players. Google positions itself as a central platform with the open-source Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) and a Universal Cart launched at I/O 2026; OpenAI previously introduced an Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) with Stripe but scaled back instant checkout. Retailers (Otto, Zalando) and adtech/payment firms (Criteo, PayPal, Mastercard, Visa) are testing integrations or tooling, while industry experts warn of complexity, merchant control loss, and limits in categories like fashion. The piece concludes agentic commerce is likely evolutionary—an additional channel—rather than a wholesale replacement of e-commerce.
Consumers Warm to Agentic AI Purchases
A new RTB House survey of more than 1,800 consumers across the U.S., U.K., Japan and France finds growing consumer openness to agentic AI handling purchases, while many still want human oversight. In the U.S., respondents said AI tools broaden options and help discover brands; 42% said AI extends decision time and 59% credited AI with highlighting brands they didn’t know. Some consumers — especially older cohorts — prefer a human to review transactions before an AI agent completes purchases. The article also cites Amazon CEO Andy Jassy saying 350+ million customers used Alexa for Shopping in the past year and notes McKinsey & ICSC project U.S. agentic commerce could reach $1 trillion by 2030.
AI Shopping Goes Mainstream: 2026 Key Stats
A July 28, 2026 MarTech article aggregates 2026 research showing rapid consumer adoption of AI tools for shopping research. Key findings: substantial portions of U.S. consumers use AI assistants for product research (43%) and many begin purchase journeys on AI platforms (46%). AI-sourced traffic to retail sites surged dramatically (Adobe reports a 1,200% YoY increase), and AI-referred shoppers convert at higher rates. Most consumers verify AI recommendations through other sources, and organizations report both strong expectations for agentic AI handling customer interactions and gaps in cloud readiness. Category usage is broad (travel, electronics, finance) and projections estimate agentic shoppers could account for $190–$385 billion in U.S. ecommerce by 2030. The piece synthesizes data from Product.ai, L.E.K. Consulting, Adobe, NielsenIQ, Gartner and others to highlight consequences for marketing, traffic, conversion and CX strategies.
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