Apollo Global Management vs Carlyle

8-K Financial Filing Analysis for Apollo Global Management (2026-09-21)

Apollo Global Management, Inc. filed a Form 8-K under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD Disclosure) announcing that its subsidiary, Athene Holding Ltd., released an updated investor presentation titled 'Athene Asset Risk & Stress Considerations, September 2026 Update'. The presentation was published on Athene's investor relations website (ir.athene.com) to provide market participants with updated visibility into Athene's asset risk profile, credit quality, and portfolio stress testing assumptions. As a furnished Item 7.01 disclosure, the filing serves primarily as an informational update without altering Apollo's consolidated financial statements or capital structure.

• Apollo subsidiary Athene Holding Ltd. made available a presentation titled 'Athene Asset Risk & Stress Considerations, September 2026 Update' on its investor relations website (ir.athene.com).
• The disclosure was furnished pursuant to Item 7.01 (Regulation FD) on September 21, 2026, signed by Vice President and Secretary Jessica L. Lomm.

Apollo Warns Hyperscaler Debt Risk Rising

In a Wednesday note, Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok warned that credit default swaps (CDS) tied to hyperscaler bonds are signaling increasing credit risk, with the spread between hyperscaler and bank CDS widening to around 60 basis points from near zero since October 2025. Slok attributes this to a debt-financed AI capex cycle with rising leverage, negative free cash flow, and uncertain payback on depreciating assets. The warning follows calls from frontier model leaders to slow AI advancement due to safety concerns, which could impact cloud providers. While some technology investors like Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets see improving margins, economists like Dean Baker of CEPR note that sophisticated CDS investors are attaching greater risk to the debt of the most profitable companies, suggesting substantial risk in AI investments.

• Apollo Global Management warned that hyperscaler credit default swaps are rising, indicating increasing credit risk.
• The gap between hyperscaler CDS and bank CDS widened to ~60 basis points from ~0 since October 2025.
• Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok attributes the repricing to debt-financed AI capex with rising leverage and negative free cash flow.

AI May Pressure Wages Before Job Losses, Economists Say

A recent study by Apollo Global Management suggests that AI may be slowing wage growth for workers in highly exposed occupations, with real wages growing 6.7 percentage points slower after 2023, but without significant job losses. However, experts caution that data is limited and may overstate AI's impact. Ben Zipperer notes that savings from AI may be reinvested elsewhere, and post-pandemic normalization could also be a factor. MIT's Daron Acemoglu expects wage impacts to be larger than employment effects, while a Dallas Fed analysis finds wage pressure on younger workers with low experience premium. David Autor's research on accounting and inventory clerks shows that AI exposure does not determine outcomes, as some occupations gain specialization and higher pay. The debate is shifting from 'AI exposure' to the nuanced effects on human expertise.

• Apollo study: workers in highly AI-exposed occupations saw real-wage growth 6.7 percentage points slower after 2023 vs. less-exposed workers.
• BLS data: labor share of nonfarm business output fell to 52.8% in Q2 2026, lowest since 1947.
• Apollo study used only 321 of 800 BLS occupations; only 11 met high-exposure threshold.

10-Q Financial Filing Analysis for Carlyle (2026-08-10)

The Carlyle Group Inc. reported its second-quarter 2026 financial results, recording total revenues of $1,123.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, down from $1,572.9 million in the prior-year period. Net income attributable to The Carlyle Group Inc. stood at $137.1 million ($0.38 per basic share), compared to $319.7 million ($0.89 per basic share) in Q2 2025. For the six-month period, revenue fell to $1,377.5 million and net income dropped to $4.9 million, primarily driven by negative unrealized performance allocations of $(993.8) million (most notably from Carlyle Partners VII, L.P.). Recurring fund management fees demonstrated sustained resilience, increasing to $657.0 million in Q2 2026 ($1,241.0 million year-to-date), supported by strong fee-earning AUM across Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest.

• Q2 2026 total revenues reached $1,123.5 million, with fund management fees contributing $657.0 million and net income attributable to Carlyle reaching $137.1 million ($0.37 diluted EPS).
• Six-month 2026 net performance allocations declined to $(636.4) million due to unrealized valuation write-downs of $(993.8) million, driven significantly by Carlyle Partners VII, L.P.
• Total balance sheet assets stood at $28,195.6 million as of June 30, 2026, with cash and cash equivalents of $1,256.5 million and corporate debt obligations of $2,998.8 million.

Very Group sale collapses as bids fall short of £2bn

The planned sale of British online retailer The Very Group is on the verge of collapsing, as owner Carlyle fails to find a buyer willing to meet its minimum valuation of around £2 billion. According to Sky News, the sales process is likely to be abandoned. Carlyle took control in November 2025 as part of a financial restructuring, paying a nominal £1. Although a sales process was initiated, it was not a binding commitment. Potential bidders, including Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com and US investor Elliott Advisors, showed preliminary interest but did not submit offers at the desired level. The company has shown operational stability, with adjusted EBITDA up 15.9% to £307.1 million in FY2024/25, despite flat revenue. Carlyle is expected to retain ownership and focus on improving profitability and growth before potentially attempting another sale.

• The Very Group's sale process is likely to be scrapped as bidders failed to meet the £2bn asking price.
• Carlyle acquired The Very Group in November 2025 for a nominal £1 as part of a debt restructuring.
• JD.com and Elliott Advisors were potential bidders but did not meet the valuation.

Carlyle AlpInvest Closes AlpInvest Atom Fund II at $1.7 Billion Hard Cap, Bringing Single-Asset Continuation Vehicle Investment Capacity to $7 Billion Across Its Secondaries Platform

Carlyle's AlpInvest platform closed its Atom Fund II at $1.7 billion hard cap, expanding its single-asset continuation vehicle capacity to $7 billion.